Buck Bravo

In my October 9th Illinois preview I ended the post with the following comment:

Besides an improved Gopher defense, there is one other wild card statistic that could give the Gophers hope. The Gophers have a turnover margin of + 10 while the Illini are only + 1. What does that mean? The Illini are far more likely to throw an interception or fumble away possession than the Gophers. If Juice Williams could just throw a few interceptions or if the Gophers could recover a few fumbles…anything could happen.

The turnover margin ended up determining the outcome of this game and facilitated a historic win for Tim Brewster that will likely be a turning point for the Minnesota program.  The Illini gave up three turnovers versus one surrendered by the Gophers.  One of those turnovers, a fumble by Juice Williams, translated into a touchdown for linebacker Simoni Lawrence.  Another was an intercepted Juice Williams pass by Ryan Collado with 1:10 left in the game.

A few things were proven today:

1. The Gopher defense is now the real deal.  Ted Roof has them playing aggressive, hard-hitting football. 
2. Bowling Green, Florida Atlantic, and Indiana were not playing flat on offense against Minnesota.  They were facing a tough defense.
3. Tim Brewster, in one year, has transformed the Gophers into a winning program with an exciting offense, a solid defense, a new look, and a zelous hope for the new TCF Bank Stadium in 2009.
4. Gopher Nation is going BOWLING…now it’s just a matter of which bowl.

The Minnesota Golden Gopher’s matchup versus Bowling Green will be a litmus test for the Gopher’s improvement since last year.  Bowling Green knocked off #25 Pittsburgh in their season opener, and after having defeated the Gophers at the Metrodome last year by a score of 32-31 in overtime will now host the Gophers at home.  Bowling Green fans are confident that they should win this game, as written in this Bowling Green blog.

Pittsburgh held Bowling Green to 64 yards rushing, but racked up 190 yards and two touchdowns passing.  The Gophers will need to stop the Bowling Green passing game in order to win.  Last week, the Gopher secondary gave up two big touchdowns on passing plays by Northern Illinois.  In both instances, the third defensive back Ryan Collado was beat.  Hopefully replacing Collado with Troy Stoudermire or Tim Dandridge will make a difference while in the nickel package. 

If the Gopher offense scores between 28 and 40 points and the Gopher defense can prevent big plays, I think that the Gophers have a legitimate chance of winning.  If David Pittman’s hamstring is finally healed, expect him to add another dangerous option for Adam Weber in addition to Eric Decker and Jack Simmons.  However, if the Gopher offense commits too many turnovers or the defense fails to stop the pass, Bowling Green could hand Minnesota their first loss of the year.  Bowling Green had an interception and forced three fumbles against Pittsburgh, which likely determined the outcome of the game. 

Expect Bowling Green to play slightly better than they did against the Gophers last year.  The Gopher offense should have a strong showing.  Will the Gophers demonstrate defensive improvement versus last year with the addition of JUCO players and new defensive coordinator Ted Roof?  That question may determine the outcome of the game.  I conducted a survey at the ever-reliable Gopher Hole chat board asking what area of the defense is the Gophers’ greatest weakness:

It looks like most Gopher fans think that the defensive line is our greatest liability.  Let’s hope that they can put some pressure on the Bowling Green quarterback and give the defensive backs a chance to attack some forced passes.

If the Gophers can avoid turnovers and control the Bowling Green passing game, this game could be a telltale sign of good things to come for the Golden Gophers.

Having reviewed the Gopher’s offensive performance yesterday, let’s take a look the defensive performance versus Northern Illinois and wrap this week up as week 2 approaches.  The defense looks to be vastly improved over last year, but in my opinion will still have a tougher time with top tier opponents.  There has definitely been an infusion of talent, and Ted Roof’s defensive scheme slowed an NIU running attack that featured a running back with 1200 yards rushing last year.  Let’s break things down:

The defense looked much better against the run than last year.  NIU was held to 72 yards rushing on 31 attempts.  Eric Small is no longer small, and Garrett Brown helped plug up the middle.  Simoni Lawrence appears to be the real deal as a hybrid linebacker/defensive back.  After watching his bone-crushing blow force a fumble near the line of scrimmage, I’m no longer concerned about his size at 205 pounds.  He also demonstrated exceptional athleticism and strength by catching and hurling the ball carrier to the ground in the open field.

I was particularly impressed with the performance of Tramaine Brock.  Brock was not only a fast and fundamentally sound tackler, but he had an instinctive ability to break for the ball or the intended receiver.  That tendency cannot be coached.  He reminds me of Tyrone Carter when he was a Gopher, but with better size and speed.

Giving up 326 yards passing to NIU is troubling.  However, if you take away the 143 yards from Ryan Collado’s two blown pass coverages, the Gopher defense would have allowed a respectable 183 yards passing.  Would’ve…could’ve…should’ve…didn’t.  The bottom line is that blown coverages resulting in big plays lose games, and the Gophers nearly lost due to these two mistakes.  Unless NIU receiver Nathan Palmer is the second coming of Randy Moss, I hope Collado sticks to special teams and does not play one-on-one coverage the rest of this season.  On a positive note, Traye Simmons looks to be a solid cornerback.  He didn’t make a “Big Play,” but he kept up with receivers and made a few tackles.  The pass rush had some bright moments, including a big sack by Willie VanDeSteeg.  I would have liked to see Chandler Harnish of NIU under a more consistently intense pass rush.

Overall, the Gophers have definitely improved from last year.  Ted Roof’s defense stopped the run, and with the exception of two big plays defended the pass quite well.  The offense, as expected, was effective.  Sid Hartman is a legend on the Twin Cities sports scene, but I have to disagree with his analysis that the incoming recruits were not a big factor as mentioned in this article.  In my opinion, three JUCOs from last year’s recruiting class made a difference in the outcome of the game.  If Tramaine Brock, Traye Simmons and Simoni Lawrence had not been on defense, would we still have won the game?  I’m not sure.  What I am sure of is that the 2008 Gophers are better than the 2007 Gophers, which bodes well for the future.