Buck Bravo

Despite losing their first game of the season last week against Ohio State, the Gophers were able to bounce back on Saturday with the first Big Ten win of the Tim Brewster era.  The hangover effect from the Ohio State loss was the likely culprit for Minnesota’s flat play on offense.  Watching the plethora of Gopher mistakes was the equivalent of a three hour root canal without Novocaine.  Luckily, Indiana’s offense had even more bloopers and blunders than Minnesota.  Come January, all that will matter from this week will be a Gopher win.

There is good news from Saturday.  Very good news.  Indiana came into the game averaging 31 points per game.  The Gopher defense held a talented, dynamic, potent offense to seven points.  Indiana was only able to muster 49 yards rushing and 244 yards passing.  The only Hoosier touchdown and 77 of the passing yards came from one lapse in coverage by the Gopher secondary.  In the first five games of the season, the Gophers had given up an average of 21 points per game.  The defense is definitely looking up.

Defensive coordinator Ted Roof has the Minnesota defense playing with a level of confidence that I’ve never seen before.  I wrote a previous entry about Roof that you can view by clicking here.  Ted Roof was a star linebacker for the 1985 and 1986 Georgia Tech defense nicknamed the Black Watch.  The intensity, ferocity, and aggressive relentlessness that the Gopher defense exhibited seems similar to the legendary Black Watch.  The Black Watch defense was famous for intimidating opponents with vicious hits and the swagger of gladiators.  If the Minnesota defense continues to play like they did on Saturday, perhaps they will earn a nickname of their own.

The Gopher offense made mistakes that were primarily due to either inexperience or Indiana’s strong defensive line.  Coming off of a loss to Ohio State in Columbus probably contributed to inexperienced players’ fundamental lapses.  Troy Stoudermire’s fumbled punt return was likely due to thinking about the run before the catch.  Deleon Eskridge’s fumble was due to carrying the ball on the wrong side.  Eskridge’s mistake was also noticed by The Daily Gopher as noted in their game reaction.  Besides Eric Decker, the young Minnesota wide receivers were generally unable to get open and make plays.  As they learn the offense and the art of route-running they should improve.  The Indiana defensive line and pass rush was impressive, with Jammie Kirlew blasting past the line on nearly every pass play.  Adam Weber had little time to pass from the pocket and was often forced to scramble or hurry his throws.  Having seen the Gophers’ offensive line face a few other teams, I credit Indiana for having a strong pass rush.

Minnesota must learn from their mistakes on offense and continue to play formidable defense as they prepare to face Illinois.  For now, a win is a win.  For tomorrow, it is imperative that Saturday’s victory teaches two lessons for the young Gopher team: 1) Remember fundamentals to avoid turnovers, and 2) Attitude and swagger can transform defensive players into intimidating warriors. 

Oh, one other thing…next time the Gophers have too many hard shots of Buckeye they need to sleep it off before the next game.

Here’s a video recap of the game:

When Big Ten football fans think of Indiana quarterbacks, most likely the first name that comes to mind is Antwaan Randle El.  Second?  Probably Kellen Lewis.  What’s the biggest difference between the two?  Antwaan Randle El is 5′10 and Kellen Lewis is 6′1.

Suprisingly, Kellen Lewis was not a highly rated recruit out of high school.  After redshirting in 2005, he accumulated 2221 yards passing and 441 yards rushing as a redshirt freshman quarterback.  In 2007, he posted 3043 yards passing and 736 yards rushing.  That’s 2662 and 3779 all purpose yards in his first two seasons, respectively.  Antwaan Randle El finished his college career in 2001 as the first quarterback to ever have 2500 all purpose yards in four consecutive seasons.  Randle El is statistically the second most prolific dual-threat quarterback in college history, trailing only Michael Vick.  Apparently, Hoosier lightning could strike twice.  If assumed that Lewis’ first two seasons and four games of production will predict the next two years, here’s how Randle El and Lewis will compare:

Each of the following videos is Kellen Lewis.  Without looking at the jersey number, one might think that they were watching Antwaan Randle El:

Saturday, the Golden Gophers will be facing an Indiana squad with a strong offense and a mediocre defense.  Against Ohio State, the Gophers surrendered 279 rushing and 135 passing yards.  Terrelle Pryor ran for 97 yards and two touchdowns.  If the Gopher offense performs at the season average of 33 points, the onus will be upon the defense to win the game.  The key to victory is containing Kellen Lewis.

The state motto for Indiana is The Crossroads of America.  The Gophers are now at a crossroads for their season.  Victory on Saturday will put them one win away from bowl eligibility.  Let’s hope that they turn the right way.  My prediction?  Gophers 38 - Hoosiers 31.

Two first half turnovers may have prevented the Gophers from keeping the game competitive versus the Buckeyes.  Ohio State scored ten points off of Adam Weber’s interception and Jack Simmons’ fumble.  If the officials had blown the whistle when Simmons’ forward progress was stopped, the Gophers may have been able to keep the score much closer.

Turnovers aside, the difference between the Gophers and the Buckeyes was much more than the final score of 34-21.  From the opening drive of the game to the final whistle, the disparity of athletic ability between the two teams was obvious.  Terrelle Pryor is an athletic enigma, and Chris “Beanie” Wells was like a battering ram up against a bamboo gate.  Brian Robiskie introduced the Gopher defensive backs to the NFL level of play. 

The Gophers covered the 18 point spread, which should be considered a victory in Tim Brewster’s rebuilding process.  If the Gophers are to compete with the Buckeyes in future years, the recent influx of talent that started with the 2008 recruiting class needs to continue.  Let’s take a look at the Rivals.com star ratings for the Minnesota and Ohio State classes of 2004-2008.  I’ve included 2004 to account for seniors who were redshirted their freshman year:

The average star rating for Minnesota recruits during this time period was 2.59 while the average for Ohio State was 3.62.  Two of the Ohio State five star recruits happen to be Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells.  Seven of the nine four star Gopher recruits are from the newly arrived 2008 class.  The 2008 class had an average Rivals star rating of 3.07.  Minnesota is not yet recruiting at the level of Ohio State, but after 2008 is headed in the right direction.

Ohio State Buckeye blogs have some interesting comments regarding Saturday:

- Men of the Scarlet and Gray may have written a descriptive term for the Gophers that best sums up OSU fan sentiment on the chat boards…”slump-buster“: 

“Minnesota is a great team to open against. The Buckeyes need a slump-buster, something to get them out of their current funk.”

- From the blog Buckeyes Daily:

“Look for the Buckeyes to show their whole hand this week. Minnesota is too good, and this is too far into this season to hold anything back in terms of play calling. Look for Minnesota to worry Buckeyes fans early, before the Buckeyes superior talent on the offensive and defensive line takes over.

OSU 35 – MINNESOTA 14″

- Both OSU blogs Eleven Warriors and Our Honor Defend chose the same picture for their preview of the game.  Coincidence?

- OSU blog Eleven Warriors predicts a Buckeye victory of 38 - 13:

“Maybe in another year where they aren’t facing Pryor, a refurbished Beanie and a defense hungry to prove doubters wrong could Tim Brewster get that landmark win he so sorely needs. Just not this Saturday.”

 - From Our Honor Defend:

“Despite close calls against Northern Illinois and Montana State, the Gopher players have every right to be optimistic about their prospects coming into Columbus.  This is certainly not the same Gopher team whose putridness was graciously overshadowed by the uncharacteristic woefulness of the Irish.”  

“Think of the possibilities.  How is Minnesota going to defend two explosive players in the same backfield?  Option plays could be deadly for the Gophers.” 

- OSU’s Buckeye Commentary notes that the return of Beanie Wells gave OSU a 5 point boost in the point spread.

- The Buckeye Blog gives the Gophers more credit than the 17.5 point spread, but understandably still favors the Buckeyes.

- Around the Oval doesn’t have a prediction up just yet, but check back for an open thread of comments on Saturday.

Ohio media also had a few interesting stories:

- You can check out an interview with Adam Weber at The Columbus Dispatch by clicking here.

- Also at the Columbus Dispatch, 56% of respondents to an online poll predict that OSU will win by 10-21 points.  Only 5% favor the Gophers.

- According to nbc4i in Columbus, Jim Tressel has been coaching OSU’s offensive line this week.

There are a few others interested in the OSU/Minnesota game:

- Adam Rittenberg of ESPN’s Big Ten Blog predicts a 35-17 OSU victory:

“I haven’t lost faith in Minnesota, but the timing just isn’t right for an upset. And unlike previous Gophers opponents, Ohio State will actually bother to cover star wide receiver Eric Decker with All-America cornerback Malcolm Jenkins.”

- Michigan blogger Maize & Blue Nation comments:

“And judging by how awful tOSU has looked in the past 3 weeks, this blogger would not be surprised to see Minnesota take down the Buckeyes in Columbus this weekend. But, I’ll take tOSU in this game because even I am still not convinced that tOSU is as bad as they’ve shown recently.”

“So I’ll stick with my healthy skepticism looking ahead to tomorrow… if the Gophers can play tough on the road in a very difficult test in a tough environment, and keep this game close, I’ll feel a lot better about answering some of those questions.”

- Goldy keeps it short and sweet by just stating “The Gophers are going to beat the Buckeyes.”

- Kent Youngblood of the Star Tribune discusses the key matchup of Eric Decker versus OSU defensive back Malcolm Jenkins.

I’ve already posted my predictions and observations about tomorrow’s game that you can review by clicking here.

In my prior post, I promised to review Ohio State media and blogs prior to Saturday’s matchup.  I’ll make that post before Saturday.  For now, let’s briefly review overall team offense and defense statistics for Big Ten teams heading into conference play. 

Statistical comparisons of Big Ten teams are not entirely fair since non-conference schedules were of different difficulty levels.  While the Gophers were playing Montana State, Ohio State was playing USC.  Regardless of the strength of schedules, there are some interesting statistical observations to be made amongst Big Ten teams.

Let’s start with the offenses:

* Statistics for teams that have only played three games have been prorated

The Gophers are tied for second in the Big Ten with 36.3 points per game.  The Gophers have solid passing numbers with 967 yards placing them fourth in the conference.  The running game is eighth in the conference.  Hopefully the running game will continue to improve as Deleon Eskridge and Shady Salamon continue to pick up where Duane Bennett left off.

And now for the defense:

Despite last week’s stellar performance, the Gophers are seventh in the conference for total points allowed.  Middle of the pack performance in the Big Ten is definitely an improvement from last year.  Tying for first place with eight interceptions is likely not a fluke, as the revamped secondary appears to be the real deal.  With a new coordinator and several new and young players, expect the defense to continue to improve over the course of the year.

Look for a new post tomorrow reviewing Ohio State blog and media predictions.

The Gopher Nation has been waiting for a convincing victory for over a year.  Last year, Florida Atlantic defeated the Gophers 42-39.  Not this year.  Saturday’s win over Florida Atlantic by a score of 37-3 was long overdue.  The Gophers had a solid offensive performance, but more importantly exhibited improvement on defense. 

The Gopher defense held the Owls to 3 points, 175 yards passing and 101 yards rushing.  When was the last time that the Gophers had four interceptions in a game?  As noted in this Big Ten Network article, it was a “pick party.”  The revamped Gopher secondary finally appears comfortable working together.  In the past, it seemed as if the Gophers would wait for a pass to be caught and then react.  With the added speed of new players, pass plays are being broken up before a completion is made. 

As I predicted after the first two games of the season, Tramaine Brock continues to be make an impact on both pass and run defense.  Traye Simmons had his second interception of the year and broke up several pass plays that may have been completed last season.  Marcus Sherels nearly had a pick on a long bomb from Rusty Smith, and linebacker Simoni Lawrence outran a FAU wide receiver while taking an interception to the house for a touchdown.  This link is to a Star Tribune article about Traye Simmons and Marcus Sherels.

Rusty Smith had a few dropped passes by his FAU receivers, including one that would have been a touchdown.  There is a video of Rusty Smith and other FAU players reacting to the loss at this link.  Adam Weber also gave up his first interception of the year on a pass that he tried to force to Eric Decker in the end zone.  Otherwise, the Gophers look to be an improved football team from last week.  Adam Rittenberg of ESPN sums up the Gophers’ performace in this blog entry:

“A new-look secondary continues to come up with big plays, as Minnesota has eight interceptions and 33 pass deflections this season. The offense continues to roll behind quarterback Adam Weber and wideout Eric Decker, and Minnesota heads into league play with plenty of momentum.”

The Gophers are a young team and should continue to improve throughout the year.  Next week’s challenge versus Ohio State is a story unto itself that I will review on Tuesday.  For now, savor the undefeated record and enjoy this Youtube video of the University of Minnesota Marching Band’s halftime performance:

Having analyzed the Gopher’s in-state recruiting trends spanning from the 2003-2009 classes in my prior post, let’s take a look at the 35 recruits that constitute the top 5 Minnesota high school football players from each year.  I chose the top 5 from each year based off of the rankings at Rivals.com.  For the following list, I ordered the players by Rivals.com star ratings, then by Scout.com star ratings, then by year:

I wonder what the past few years would have been like for the Gophers if more of these players had stayed home?  This year we could have had James Laurinaitis at linebacker and Lydon Murtha on the O-line if just two more of the above top players had stayed home. 

While recruiting site rankings are not always accurate and the 2009 class will surely have some rankings change as the year goes on, it is clear that historically the Gophers have missed out on many of Minnesota’s top recruits.  While 2007 is difficult to attribute to either Glen Mason or Tim Brewster, let’s include 2007 as one of the first three classes under Brewster:

Despite the coaching regime change, 2007 was a very good class for the Gophers with Anthony Jacobs, Andre Tate’, and Trey Davis staying home to play for the Gophers.  Jacobs looks to eventually be a force on the defensive line, Tate’ is getting carries in preseason training as a running back, and Davis is competing for time on the offensive line.  All three should be productive players.

2008, while yielding one of the best recuriting classes in Gopher football history, did not keep four of the top 5 Minnesota recruits home.  Michael Floyd should see the field at Notre Dame.  Floyd could have racked up huge receiving statistics in the Gopher’s spread offense, and had a full four years to become a dynamic duo with star quarterback prospect Marquies Gray.  Minnesota is traditionally very appreciative of hometown stars who stay home such as Joe Mauer, Marion Barber, Thomas Tapeh and Dave Winfield.  Instead he’ll be in rural Indiana catching passes from the peculiar Jimmy Clausen.  Clausen’s commitment announcement to Notre Dame involving a limousine, gaudy jewelry and an ‘N Sync Lance Bass hairdo was even more nauseating than his first year’s performance.  Willie Mobley will sit this year out at Ohio State with an injury that goes back to high school.  Joe Schafer and Brendan Kelly will likely spend their college years deep in Wisconsin, but can look forward to an opportunity to play a game at TCF Bank Stadium in 2009 as visitors.  The bright spot from the 2008 recruiting class was Sam Maresh.  Sam will sit this year out due to heart surgery, but very well may return to be a great linebacker for the Gophers.

2009 is looking much better for the Gophers.  Three of the Top 5 Minnesota recruits have already committed to stay home, and one is still undecided.  Unfortunately, Bryce McNeal committed to Michigan.  Fortunately, he still has time to reconsider.  Moses Alipate, the son of former Viking Tuineau Alipate, is a quarterback from Bloomington with a rocket arm, great size, and very good speed.  Josh Campion, an offensive lineman from Fergus Falls, committed to the Gophers in the Fall of 2007.  Campion set a precedent for outstate star players that the University of Minnesota represents residents beyond the 651 and 612 area codes, too.  Ed Olson of Mahtomedi is another solid offensive line prospect, and will hopefully line up next to Campion in TCF Bank Stadium a few years from now.

There are always going to be Minnesota recruits that want to see other parts of the country, attend a parent’s alma mater, or leave the state for any number of reasons.  While the 2009 recruiting year is still young and we’re only looking at a small sample size of 5 players, I believe that this year’s class will mark a turning point for in-state Gopher football recruiting.  If Brewster’s Gophers can show improvement on the field and demonstrate that the University of Minnesota will soon have a top notch Big Ten football program, we could have a winning combintation for recruits.  A home state’s Big Ten football program that wins with a beautiful new stadium, a great campus, great academics, and a location that is in a major metropolitan area will be tough to turn down.  ”Maroon red” slippers have already begun to tap, as 2006 Minnesota recruits Matt Carufel and Kim Royston have transferred to the University of Minnesota from Notre Dame and Wisconsin after realizing that there’s no place like home.

In recent years, one of the criticisms of the Gopher football program has been that too many of Minnesota’s best high school players don’t stay home for college football.  Some blame the lack of a stadium, some blame lack of a fan base due to the Vikings, and some blame former coaches.  Whatever the reason(s), in the four years leading up to Tim Brewster’s hiring (2003-2006) only two of the annual top five Minnesota high school football players (ratings by Rivals.com) became Gophers.  That’s a 10% retention rate (2 out of 20 total).  I’ve chosen to analyze the top 5 from each recruiting year since delving deeper into recruiting classes would often include two star recruits who may not be offered scholarships.  For a comparison I’ve chosen Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Both schools have a monopoly in their home states in that there are no other big name schools to compete with.  Let’s see how the Gophers stacked up for retaining local recruits from 2003-2006:

While the University of Minnesota kept 10% of their annual top 5 in-state recruits at home from 2003-2006, Wisconsin had an 80% retention rate and Ohio State 60%.  Even more troubling is the number of Minnesota recruits lost to Notre Dame and border rival Wisonsin during that same period:

 Both Wisconsin and Notre Dame were able to recruit better than The University of Minnesota in the state of Minnesota from 2003-2006.  Wisconsin hurts the most, as the players headed to Madison knowingly committed to a school that would play their home state’s university every year in a border battle.  I can understand a high school player desiring to experience another part of the country, but Wisconsin?  I would liken a top Minnesota high school player becoming a Badger to Brett Farve playing for the Vikings, a Hatfield joining the McCoys, or another historical figure.  For a player to agree to play against their home state, in front of friends and family, and sometimes while visiting their home state is tough to fathom.  Oh, I forgot to mention, there is no definite academic benefit to attending Wisconsin or Notre Dame over Minnesota.  If the “other school” was Harvard or Stanford I might understand.  Also, I think that Minneapolis has more for college students to do in their free time than Madison or South Bend.

Since the hiring of Tim Brewster, the trend of Minnesota attrition may be reversing.  Brewster was hired with a reputation as a great recruiter.  Having a new stadium in 2009 can’t hurt either.  Since Brewster didn’t take over as head coach until early 2007, I have no way of knowing who is responsible for the 2007 Minnesota recruiting class.  Therefore, for the sake of fairness, I’ll omit it from my analysis.  Remember, the 2009 class is still seven months from signing day.  That being said, here’s how Brewster’s Gophers compare to Wisconsin and Ohio State when it comes to retaining in-state recruits for the 2008 and 2009 classes: 

2008 had one top 5 Minnesota recruit stay home, which is in line with expectations from 2003-2006.  It is not completely fair to hold Brewster responsible for the 2008 class, since these high school players faced a changing of the guard prior to their senior seasons.  2009 already has three of the top 5 in-state recruits staying home, which is on par with Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Ra’shede Hageman, a talented tight end from Washburn Senior High, has yet to commit to a school.  Minnesota is on his list of potential schools.  While 2008 saw two Minnesota recruits go to Wisconsin and one to Notre Dame, 2009 is looking much better:

Keeping top Minnesota talent in Minnesota is crucial to building the reputation of the Gopher football program.  Although there aren’t enough recruiting years to definitively establish a pattern, it looks as if the trend lines are headed in the right direction:

 So far, it appears that more top Minnesota high school recruits are opening their eyes to the benefits of staying in Minnesota for their college football careers.  Hopefully the trend will continue of local talent following the “Golden” brick road after realizing that there’s no place like home.