Buck Bravo

On a recent tour of Michigan’s stadium facilities, otherwise known as “The Big House,” Rich Rodriguez leads recruits into the new state-of-the-art shower facilities:

The historic football stadium will soon feature a wide variety of festivities such as an outdoor hockey game.  Fortunately, visitors will be reminded to hold on to the soap in the Big House.  

Four star offensive lineman Taylor Lewan, who had been recruited by Minnesota, has committed to Michigan. Michigan has had several highly rated offensive linemen commit in the last few years, so Minnesota likely won’t have to face Lewan on the field for at least three years, if ever. Rich Rodriguez was successful as the coach of West Virginia in a weak Big East conference, but led Michigan to a losing season despite having a squad that is loaded with talented players. It’s sad when the following video is the first result in a YouTube search when “Rich Rodriguez” is entered:

One more game in the Metrodome.  That’s it.  Frustrated Gopher fans exiting the Metrodome Saturday afternoon were not strangers to humiliation.  Sitting in front of me were three Michigan fans who were friendly throughout the game.  In the fourth quarter one of them turned around and asked “Why aren’t more people upset?”  Why?  Because Minnesota fans are used to losing, especially in the Metrodome.  One more trip to the Metrodome until the prospect of next year brings change, hope, and the beginning of a new era for Gopher Football.

Saturday’s loss to Michigan was a reality check for the Gopher Nation.  As previously noted in my Michigan game preview, the Gophers just don’t have the same level of talent…yet.  What do you get when you combine a team in need of talent, a new stadium on the horizon, a deflating loss, and a big recruiting weekend?  You get the good, the bad, and the ugly.

The Good

1. One more home game until Minnesota plays in TCF Bank Stadium.  Enough said.
2. Ra’Shede Hageman.  One of the top players in the state of Minnesota.  Expect him to make a major impact for the Gophers.  If he stays at tight end he should rack up gaudy receiving numbers in the spread offense.  Jack Simmons will be in the NFL next year, and Hageman may have a chance to contribute as a true freshman.
3. Matt Garin.  Another highly rated player stays home.  Garin has exceptional agility and quickness for his height and size.  If he continues to develop he could be the next Willie VanDeSteeg.
4. Joey Searcy.  The Gophers need defensive tackles for the future, and at 6′1, 276 pounds Searcy is exactly that.  In the footage I’ve seen he’s quick and relentless in his pursuit of the ball.
5. Adam Weber had a trial by fire due to an injury to Eric Decker and a porous offensive line.  The whole experience could help him improve for next year once a more experienced O-line gives him more time in the pocket and he has additional talented receivers.

The Bad

1. The offensive line.  Plagued by inexperience and injuries, the O-line couldn’t open up holes for the running game or protect Adam Weber.
2. The rest of the offense.  Receivers couldn’t get open, first downs were few and far between, and there was no hurry-up offense late in the game.
3. The weather.  Visiting recruits were treated to a chilly and windy day.
4. The loss.  A win on Saturday would have guaranteed that Minnesota doesn’t end up in Detroit for the Motor City Bowl.

The Ugly

The ugly. A picture speaks a thousand words.

- Michigan’s MGOBLOG, one of the most popular blogs in all of college football, gives a detailed preview of the matchup with Minnesota and predicts a 23-15 Gopher win.

- Another Michigan blog, MVictors.com, notes:

That’s our jug! As Lloyd Carr reminded everyone last year, we bought it, they stole it. It’s ours-let’s keep it.

- Maize and Blue Nation notes of the Wolverines:

Good offense leads to good defense, and vice-versa. There is no magic wand for this team, just getting better fundamentally is the key to winning. And when those fundamentals have changed so drastically like they did this off-season, there will be a long gestation period. There is a reason the spread is so hard to defend, because it is equally, if not harder to run.

- Varsity Blue predicts a 31-13 Michigan loss.

- Maize n Brew interviews The Daily Gopher.

- Rumors are circling that Tennessee is after Tim Brewster.  If he left after this year, it would strictly be for the money.  He doesn’t strike me as the type to abandon the team he’s putting together for a few dollars more.  He has the chance at Minnesota to build a BCS capable program and call it his own.  At this point I’d only be concerned if the likes of Texas, USC, or LSU were calling.

- Kent Youngblood has a great story on Adam Weber and Jack Simmons having common ties to the Michigan rivalry.

- Both Kent Youngblood and The Daily Gopher discuss the biggest recruiting weekend of the year.

- Golden Gopher Football blog predicts a Gopher win.

- Adam Rittenberg of ESPN’s Big Ten Blog notes:

Golden Gophers head coach Tim Brewster placed the empty display case that would hold the Little Brown Jug outside the players’ lounge in Minnesota’s football building this week. After a tough loss that in the past would trigger a collapse, the Gophers need all the motivation they can get for Saturday’s matchup against Michigan (ESPN, noon ET).

- Purdue blog Off the Tracks and Northwestern blog Lake the Posts both predict a Minnesota win.

- Bloggers at The Nittany Line are split as to who will win on Saturday.

- There is a post at the Purdue blog Boiled Sports that has absolutely nothing to do with the Minnesota/Michigan game, but I had to include it in these links.  I’d nominate the post for comedic college football post of the year if such an award actually existed.  Click here…especially if your vitriol for Notre Dame’s huge payday for mediocre football ircks you as much as it does me.  Brady Quinn and now Jimmy Clausen…what’s with those Catholic quarterbacks?

The battle for the little brown jug is set to commence this Saturday amongst a “Solid Gold Saturday” crowd.  One team enters the matchup 7-2, while the other is at 2-7.  Who would have thought that the Gophers would have won five more games than Michigan nine games into this season? 

There has been speculation that new Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez, while transitioning the Wolverines to the spread offense, is undergoing a transitional rebuilding year similar to what Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster experienced in 2007.  There are similarities.  Both teams are moving to the spread after having been built for a power running game.  Minnesota had a 1-11 record in 2007 and Michigan enters the game at 2-7.  However, those two points are where the similarities end.

In 2007, Tim Brewster’s Gophers lost six games by a touchdown or less.  There had been a multi-year drought of incoming talent to the program.  The players on both the offense and the defense had been rated no higher than three stars by Rivals.com coming out of high school.  Minnesota’s 2008 turnaround, while due to several factors, is primarily due to an influx of talent on the defensive side of the ball.

While Michigan may not have the level of blue chip talent that they’ve had in the past, they still have plenty of talented athletes.  The following chart compares the experience and Rivals.com star ratings of the primary contributors of the Michigan and Minnesota defenses for 2008:

This year, the average defensive player for both Michigan and Minnesota is a junior…BUT…Michigan averages 3.9 Rivals stars versus 2.5 for Minnesota.  As for the 2008 offenses:

The average offensive player for both teams is a sophomore…BUT…Michigan averages 3.8 stars per player while Minnesota is at 2.4.

The bottom line?  Tim Brewster’s Gophers are 7-2 with considerably less highly rated players than Rich Rodriguez’s 2-7 Wolverines.  With six games lost by a touchdown or less in 2007, what would Tim Brewster’s first year record have been if he had Michigan’s level of talent?  For that matter, would the Gophers have lost to Northwestern or Ohio State in 2008 if the average player on the defense had a Rivals star rating equivalent to Tramaine Brock and Traye Simmons?

What does this all mean?  Two things.  First, recruit star ratings can predict the statistical probability of a player’s potential, but many other factors including maturity, future coaching, future training, and attitude are not taken into account when a player is rated.  Second, if Rich Rodriguez can pull all of Michigan’s talent together the Gophers could be in for a formidable foe this weekend.

Here’s a recap of last week’s game versus Northwestern:

For a gander at this week’s opponent, take a look at Michigan last week versus Purdue:

Traye Simmons had a breakout performance last Saturday.  Here are a few of his JUCO highlights:

Following is a video of Minnesota’s Homecoming Parade:

For some people, roller coasters can overload the fight/flight response.  A great roller coaster will start you off in anticipation high above the Earth, rocket you towards the ground as only your stomach defies gravity, and then lift you up again to begin a series of exhilarating twists and turns.  At the end of the ride, you experience a pleasurable calmness after your brain has been been wrung dry of fight/flight response induced adrenaline and endorphins.

For the Gopher Nation, Saturday morning was one of excitement and anticipation.  Losing the game with six seconds left was a gut-wrenching crash back to Earth.  Sunday brought news that two highly touted recruits had committed to Minnesota, lifting fans back up in an unexpected twist of events.

Play-by-play analysis and game strategy can be found on other sites, so here are a few observations regarding the entire weekend experience intended to restore fanbase equilibrium:

1. The Gophers are 7-2.  They have only lost to teams that are also 7-2.
2. In past years, heartbreaking losses were accompanied by expectations that the program had plateaued and was not improving.  In 2008, Minnesota had a recruiting class rated in the top 20 for all of Division 1.  This is a young team that was almost 8-1, not an experienced team that missed their only window of opportunity.
3. While Minnesota could have defeated Northwestern and is much improved from last season, the program is still rebuilding.  Teams with an 8-1 record include Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State…they are loaded with upperclassmen and four star backups.  7-2 is a great accomplishment and a testament to the direction the program is headed.
4. On Sunday, Minnesota landed two talented recruits.  Junior College wide receiver Hayo Carpenter is the first Gopher recruit to be rated at five stars (5 stars at Scout.com and 4 stars at Rivals.com) in the Tim Brewster era.  Kerry Lewis has received rave reviews from ESPN that along with a video can be viewed by clicking here.
5. The Gophers are already bowl eligible.  The Gopher Football Program will enter TCF Bank Stadium having already returned to the pre-Brewster level of expected accomplishment.

Losing on Saturday was disappointing, but in the big picture it was just a battle that was lost.  With another quality recruiting class in the works, a new stadium in 2009, and a team gaining experience the war is still being won.  Halloween weekend was without question an emotional roller coaster.  Expect another intense ride next Saturday versus a Michigan team loaded with blue chip talent.  When adrenaline and endorphins fire up the Gopher Nation fight/flight response, let’s choose fight.