Buck Bravo

In my October 9th Illinois preview I ended the post with the following comment:

Besides an improved Gopher defense, there is one other wild card statistic that could give the Gophers hope. The Gophers have a turnover margin of + 10 while the Illini are only + 1. What does that mean? The Illini are far more likely to throw an interception or fumble away possession than the Gophers. If Juice Williams could just throw a few interceptions or if the Gophers could recover a few fumbles…anything could happen.

The turnover margin ended up determining the outcome of this game and facilitated a historic win for Tim Brewster that will likely be a turning point for the Minnesota program.  The Illini gave up three turnovers versus one surrendered by the Gophers.  One of those turnovers, a fumble by Juice Williams, translated into a touchdown for linebacker Simoni Lawrence.  Another was an intercepted Juice Williams pass by Ryan Collado with 1:10 left in the game.

A few things were proven today:

1. The Gopher defense is now the real deal.  Ted Roof has them playing aggressive, hard-hitting football. 
2. Bowling Green, Florida Atlantic, and Indiana were not playing flat on offense against Minnesota.  They were facing a tough defense.
3. Tim Brewster, in one year, has transformed the Gophers into a winning program with an exciting offense, a solid defense, a new look, and a zelous hope for the new TCF Bank Stadium in 2009.
4. Gopher Nation is going BOWLING…now it’s just a matter of which bowl.

- At Golden Gopher Football Blog, the following prediciton was made:

Juice, Benn, Vontae Davis, “Andy” Dufrene and company are a tall task for your Golden Gophers to overcome, and while I don’t see a big Ski-U-Mah upset, I do think they keep it interesting.

- The Daily Gopher has an in-depth interview with an Illinois blogger (Paint the Town Orange) that can be read by clicking here.  His feelings regarding the chances for a Gopher victory:

From what I saw last week against Indiana I have serious doubts as to how good Minnesota is. Illinois does not statistically rank very high but I would wager it is a much better defense than Bowling Green FAU or Montana State. If Minnesota is close or wins this game, I will frankly be shocked and very disappointed.

- Goldy from Down With Goldy…well…he isn’t in the mood for a prediction:

Want some Gopher news? Well it’s really too bad for you then. You should probably read a blog that isn’t written by a drunken retard.

Kent Youngblood of the Star Tribune quotes a discussion with Tim Brewster in his blog:

“Everybody understands the deal with the homecoming opponent,” Brewster said. “You’re picked because, for the most part, you think that it’s a victory for your school. That’s age-old. That goes back 100 years. So it is what it is.”

- Kent Youngblood also has some interesting statistics for the gameday preview in an article that can be read by clicking here.

- Marcus Fuller quotes Traye Simmons ragarding Marcus Sherels’ shoulder injury in his Pioneer Press blog:

“I have to pick up the slack, as well as other guys in the secondary,” Simmons said. “The backups for Marcus also have to pick up the slack. We have to just go out and play. They have to me, the best receiving core that we’ve played thus far — size and speed wise. We have to stop the run, force them to pass and make plays on the ball.”

- Marcus Fuller also notes in this article that Eric Decker is leading the nation in receiving yards.

- Myron Medcalf of the Star Tribune has an up close and personal article about Juice Williams.

- Patrick Reusse wrote a Star Tribune article focusing on the improving Gopher defense.

- MNdaily.com has an article on kicker Joel Monroe.

- In another MNdaily.com article Adam Weber comments:

“I think a lot of people are concerned or nervous that we’re throwing to Eric too much,” Weber said. “I don’t think that’s a problem; kid catches the ball, what’s the problem with that?”

Media and blogs in Illinois share thoughts on Saturday’s Gopher matchup:

- Illinois blog Paint the Town Orange comments:

Obviously the most significan improvement on this Gophers team has been the defense, they are no longer getting blown out week in and week out.

This game will not be handed to us by any means.

- IlliniHQ.com features an interview with Ron Zook regarding Tim Brewster:

“You’ve got to get out and work,” Zook said. “You’ve got to go out and sell your program. (Brewster) has done that. It wasn’t like they hadn’t won before. Minnesota’s been to a lot of bowl games. I think last year was the first time they’ve missed a bowl game in a while. You’ve got a lot on that football team that know how to win.”

- According to a University of Illinois’s website article, fans will be frantically waving their “Zook Zone” towels.  Does anyone know if the origin of organized linen waving was the 1987 Minnesota Twins Homer Hankie?:

The “Rock the House” Game is a game of special fan emphasis - a call for Illinois fans to bring their Zook Zone Towels, stand when the opponent has the ball and create an extremely loud home field advantage in support of the Fighting Illini.

- The Daily Illini has an interview with Gopher quarterback Adam Weber that can be read by clicking here.

- Illinois players Juice Williams and Brit Miller comment on the Gophers in a Chicago Sun-Times article that can be accessed by clicking here:

”This is a big game for Minnesota and a big game for us. They’re learning how to win. I see a lot of ourselves in those guys. This is a different Minnesota team than last year.”

Various other media and bloggers have also mentioned Saturday’s game:

- Adam Rittenberg of ESPN’s Big Ten Blog mentions a key matchup to watch.  Read the entire article by clicking here:

Eric Decker vs. Vontae Davis — The nation’s leading wide receiver goes up against one of the top cover corners in FBS. Decker and Minnesota have a great chance to validate a surprising start against Illinois, which comes off its best game of the year last week at Michigan. Ohio State and cornerback Malcolm Jenkins held Decker in check two weeks ago, and the talented Davis will try to do the same.

- A USA Today article quotes Ron Zook:

“This is a good, good football team, a much-improved football team,” Zook said. “They’re doing very, very similar things to what we did last year. They’re playing with unbelievable emotion. The coaches are running up and down the sideline with unbelievable emotion…they can move the ball against anybody in the country. All you’ve got to do is watch the Ohio State game.”

- Purdue blog Off the Tracks predicts a 27-21 Illini victory and comments:

This game is very intriguing. Minnesota is an unexpected team that could join the Michigan State-Northwestern winner, Penn State, and Ohio State as bowl eligible. They would also give themselves a very nice win in terms of positioning for that bowl. The offense wasn’t overwhelming against the Hoosiers last week, but the defense was one big play given up away from a shutout. The Gophers will almost undoubtedly find their way to a sixth win and a bowl this year. That’s a good sign for what Tim Brewster is doing in Minneapolis. Our homecoming is far from a guaranteed win.

- Michigan’s Maize and Blue Nation comments:

Illinois has maybe the best player in the Big Ten right now in Juice Williams. He may be inconsistent, but when he’s on, he’s on big time. He was on last week and I think that will carry over into this game. Minnesota is push over. Illinois rolls big.

- Michigan’s Maize n Brew has a commentary on Illinois fans:

Illinois Fans - For the most part, you were nice people. A couple of you were schmucks, but for the most part nice enough. I wish your football team luck with the remainder of your schedule. You beat us in our house and I tip my cap to you.

- Penn State’s Happy Hour Valley says that there is ”Too much Juice in the Illini’s tank for the Caddyshack Gophers to handle.”

- Michigan State’s Ground Zero East Lansing predicts a 38-17 Illinois win.

- The Buckeye Battle Cry predicts:

Imagine the huge gush of popularity the Gophers would get by becoming bowl-eligible in just seven weeks of football. I’m convinced they’ll get there, but just not this week. Illinois has a nasty offense and can rack ‘em up against teams like Minnesota. The Gophers will get their points too, but I don’t see them keeping up with Juice Williams.

- Penn State’s The Nittany Line notes:

Minnesota has the better record in this game (5-1) compared to (3-2) but Illinois just got done manhandling Michigan and the two loses are to PSU and Missouri. The Illini are statistically better in Total, passing and rushing yards, and points scored. Juice Williams is on a roll and Minnesota hasn’t faced anything like him yet. Again, Minnesota is on the rise but they won’t be able to contain Juice.

- Michigan Sports Center comments:

The Golden Gophers are only one win away from becoming bowl eligible, but I think they’ll have to wait for that win until another week. Since we all saw what Illinois did to Michigan last week, I don’t think an explanation is even necessary. If Juice Williams plays half as well as he did a week ago, the Fighting Illini will win this game.

Prediction: Illinois wins comfortably

Check back tomorrow morning for local Minnesota media and blog predictions, comments, and news.

Predictions and previews for the upcoming game between the Gophers and the Illini will soon be available at many different blogs, newspapers, and websites.  This article will not cover the formidable talent of Illinois quarterback Juice Williams, the dangerous passing duo of Adam Weber to Eric Decker, or the similarities of the Tim Brewster and the Ron Zook rebuilding strategies.  Instead, this article will attempt to compare both teams in a fair, unbiased, and unemotional manner.  How is that possible?  Let’s try something new and different…comparing team statistics.  Sound like fun?  Why not give it a try? 

Let’s take a look at the strength of the opponents that both Minnesota and Illinois have faced.  Rankings are from the CBSsports.com Top 120 rankings updated on Tuesday.  Neither Eastern Illinois or Montana State were in the top 120, so both were assigned a rank of 121:

Illinois has faced a tougher schedule based upon both the average and the median of opponent rankings.  Minnesota’s most highly rated victory was against 75th ranked Indiana, while Illinois’ was against 53rd ranked Michigan.  Illinois was also in a week 1 shootout with 3rd ranked Missouri, losing by just 10 points in a game that featured 94 points scored.  With the stronger portfolio of wins, a victory versus a more highly rated team, and a close game with a top 5 team it is fair to surmise that Illinois has a slight advantage.  Advantage Illinois.

Now for an offensive comparison.  Both teams have productive spread offenses, as can be viewed in the following table:

* Illinois statistics are prorated to match the Gophers’ 6 games.

Illinois has a clear advantage for rushing yardage.  Interestingly, Minnesota has committed nearly half as many turnovers on offense.  Total passing yardage only differs by 42 yards, which is too close to declare a definitive difference.  With superior rushing yardage and an extra five points per game, Illinois has stronger numbers.  Offensive advantage Illinois.

Minnesota defensive coordinator Ted Roof has the Gopher defense playing fundamentally sound, aggressive, flat-out nasty defense.  How does the new look Gopher defense stack up against Illinois?:

* Illinois statistics are prorated to match the Gophers’ 6 games.

Minnesota has a clear lead in defending the run, while Illinois has a slight lead in defensing the pass.  Minnesota has forced more turnovers, and has allowed significantly fewer points per game with 18.5 versus 29.6 for Illinois.  Defensive advantage Minnesota.

CBSsports.com’s Top 120 ranks Minnesota 33rd and Illinois 35th.  Looking at statistics for strength of schedule, offense and defense Illinois looks better than Minnesota in two of the three categories.  Also, the offensive and defensive statistics are likely skewed since Illinois faced more difficult opponents.  Throw in home field advantage, and the Gophers are definitely the underdogs in this matchup. 

Based solely upon available statistics, Illinois is the favorite.  That shouldn’t suprise anyone.  Besides an improved Gopher defense, there is one other wild card statistic that could give the Gophers hope.  The Gophers have a turnover margin of + 10 while the Illini are only + 1.  What does that mean?  The Illini are far more likely to throw an interception or fumble away possession than the Gophers.  If Juice Williams could just throw a few interceptions or if the Gophers could recover a few fumbles…anything could happen.