Buck Bravo

Speed, size, agility, awareness, skill.  College football recruits are given star ratings each year based upon these factors.  Occasionally talented players will be missed by the recruiting services, but teams in the BCS bowl games generally field five, four and a few three star players.  So, where have the Gopher players ranked over the last few years and how are they looking for 2009?  

For Part 1 of this endeavor, let’s start with the offense.  A list of offensive line starters for 2006-2008 could not be found, so receivers and backs are featured this analysis.  If a list of 2006-2008 offensive line starters could be passed along, I’ll add another analysis in a future post.  A few notes: 1) Since there will be four running backs in 2009, I could not include them all.  I left Bennett off of the list because his knee injury is cause for concern.  2) I included David Pittman as the fourth wide receiver for 2009 since he will be a senior and started in the Insight Bowl.  He was injured for most of 2008.  Here’s how the Rivals’ star ratings for skill players on offense have changed since 2006 and could look for 2009:

Here’s a graph of the average Rivals’ star ratings for 2006-2009:

Now, this graph does not take into account player age.  Older players will inevitably be bigger, stronger, and better than they were as freshmen.  While the graph is interesting in that the 2006-2008 changes in star averages correlate to on-field performance, I doubt that 2009 will feature an astronomical improvement in offensive performance.  However, it is realistic to expect a marginal improvement over prior years.  Eric Decker should have three four star receivers to compliment his play.  The addition of Hasan Lipscomb should add an explosive running back.  Adam Weber will finally be an upperclassman.  Time will tell who actually takes the field on the offense, but as of right now star rating trend lines are heading in the right direction.  Check back tomorrow for a similar analysis of the defense.

Minnesota’s offense only mustered 105 yards passing and 83 yards rushing versus a Michigan defense that is statistically in the bottom three of the Big Ten for points allowed, total yards per game, and passing yards allowed.  What happened?  The spread offense relies on multiple offensive threats “spread” across the field in order to isolate and expose the weaknesses of the defense.  Injuries to Eric Decker and the offensive line exposed the Gophers’ greatest weaknesses: inexperience and a lack of depth.  Effectively, a few injuries spread out the Gopher offense too thin.

Eric Decker is the catalyst for the Minnesota offense.  Throughout the year, opposing defenses have had their best defensive back on him along with another defender in position for double team coverage.  Decker still put up huge numbers.  In doing so, he forced opposing defenses to assign less capable defenders to other Gopher receivers.  The result?  A potent passing attack.  With Decker injured, the game plan changed for opposing defenses. 

The Gophers do have talented receivers in addition to Eric Decker.  Tight end Jack Simmons is an NFL prospect.  However, as a tight end he doesn’t offer the blazing wide receiver speed that the spread offense requires.  Tight ends in the spread will usually benefit from having wide receivers that distract the defense and allow them to get open.  Brandon Green, Da’Jon McKnight, Xzavian Brandon, and Brodrick Smith (the freshmen four wide receivers)have the potential to develop into solid players.  All of them are true freshmen and will need time to learn the finesse aspects of Division I route running.  Inexperience does not mean lack of talent.  David Pittman has the potential to be a solid receiving option, but has been dealing with an injury most of the year.

The Minnesota offensive line has suffered several injuries throughout the year.  Against Michigan, the O-line had two freshmen and a sophomore up against an experienced defensive line.  Give these young linemen another year or two of maturity and weight training, and perhaps Adam Weber will have more time in the pocket while Deleon Eskridge has wider running lanes.

The bottom line is that an injury to Eric Decker and a few injuries to the offensive line exposed Minnesota’s inexperience and lack of depth.  Minnesota’s strong start to the season was dependent upon a starting lineup that in many places was one-deep.  Fortunately, there are several young players on the team who should develop into solid players and give the program depth in the coming years.  Next year the offensive line will have another year of experience and strength training, Eric Decker plans to return, the freshmen four wide receivers will be sophomores, David Pittman will still be here, and the team will be joined by both five star junior college receiver Hayo Carpenter and the talented Minneapolis tight end Ra’Shede Hageman. 

Despite a 7-3 record, a bowl-eligible season, a new stadium in 2009, and a coach of the year candidate, Minnesota still has plenty of room for talented recruits who are looking to contribute.

For some people, roller coasters can overload the fight/flight response.  A great roller coaster will start you off in anticipation high above the Earth, rocket you towards the ground as only your stomach defies gravity, and then lift you up again to begin a series of exhilarating twists and turns.  At the end of the ride, you experience a pleasurable calmness after your brain has been been wrung dry of fight/flight response induced adrenaline and endorphins.

For the Gopher Nation, Saturday morning was one of excitement and anticipation.  Losing the game with six seconds left was a gut-wrenching crash back to Earth.  Sunday brought news that two highly touted recruits had committed to Minnesota, lifting fans back up in an unexpected twist of events.

Play-by-play analysis and game strategy can be found on other sites, so here are a few observations regarding the entire weekend experience intended to restore fanbase equilibrium:

1. The Gophers are 7-2.  They have only lost to teams that are also 7-2.
2. In past years, heartbreaking losses were accompanied by expectations that the program had plateaued and was not improving.  In 2008, Minnesota had a recruiting class rated in the top 20 for all of Division 1.  This is a young team that was almost 8-1, not an experienced team that missed their only window of opportunity.
3. While Minnesota could have defeated Northwestern and is much improved from last season, the program is still rebuilding.  Teams with an 8-1 record include Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State…they are loaded with upperclassmen and four star backups.  7-2 is a great accomplishment and a testament to the direction the program is headed.
4. On Sunday, Minnesota landed two talented recruits.  Junior College wide receiver Hayo Carpenter is the first Gopher recruit to be rated at five stars (5 stars at Scout.com and 4 stars at Rivals.com) in the Tim Brewster era.  Kerry Lewis has received rave reviews from ESPN that along with a video can be viewed by clicking here.
5. The Gophers are already bowl eligible.  The Gopher Football Program will enter TCF Bank Stadium having already returned to the pre-Brewster level of expected accomplishment.

Losing on Saturday was disappointing, but in the big picture it was just a battle that was lost.  With another quality recruiting class in the works, a new stadium in 2009, and a team gaining experience the war is still being won.  Halloween weekend was without question an emotional roller coaster.  Expect another intense ride next Saturday versus a Michigan team loaded with blue chip talent.  When adrenaline and endorphins fire up the Gopher Nation fight/flight response, let’s choose fight.