Buck Bravo

Following is a new video of Eric Decker’s highlight reel:

Speed, size, agility, awareness, skill.  College football recruits are given star ratings each year based upon these factors.  Occasionally talented players will be missed by the recruiting services, but teams in the BCS bowl games generally field five, four and a few three star players.  So, where have the Gopher players ranked over the last few years and how are they looking for 2009?  

For Part 1 of this endeavor, let’s start with the offense.  A list of offensive line starters for 2006-2008 could not be found, so receivers and backs are featured this analysis.  If a list of 2006-2008 offensive line starters could be passed along, I’ll add another analysis in a future post.  A few notes: 1) Since there will be four running backs in 2009, I could not include them all.  I left Bennett off of the list because his knee injury is cause for concern.  2) I included David Pittman as the fourth wide receiver for 2009 since he will be a senior and started in the Insight Bowl.  He was injured for most of 2008.  Here’s how the Rivals’ star ratings for skill players on offense have changed since 2006 and could look for 2009:

Here’s a graph of the average Rivals’ star ratings for 2006-2009:

Now, this graph does not take into account player age.  Older players will inevitably be bigger, stronger, and better than they were as freshmen.  While the graph is interesting in that the 2006-2008 changes in star averages correlate to on-field performance, I doubt that 2009 will feature an astronomical improvement in offensive performance.  However, it is realistic to expect a marginal improvement over prior years.  Eric Decker should have three four star receivers to compliment his play.  The addition of Hasan Lipscomb should add an explosive running back.  Adam Weber will finally be an upperclassman.  Time will tell who actually takes the field on the offense, but as of right now star rating trend lines are heading in the right direction.  Check back tomorrow for a similar analysis of the defense.

The 2009 Insight Bowl was a great football game…for the first quarter. The game initially appeared to be a Wild West gunslinger showdown with two touchdowns scored in the first two minutes of the game. By the second quarter, Kansas began to pull away as their seasoned veterans overpowered a young Gopher team. Rather than a play-by-play analysis, let’s look at what was to dislike and like about the game:

Dislikes

1. Officiating - While fair officiating probably wouldn’t have made a difference in the outcome of the game, it definitely would have resulted in a closer matchup. In particular, the pass interference call against Steve Davis on third down in the second quarter was a morale-buster. On the replay, he did not hold or impede the receiver from catching the pass. To add insult to injury, the pass was also uncatchable. That bad call resulted in a Kansas touchdown and the beginning of the end for the Gophers. Kansas was not called for a single penalty in the first half despite chop-blocking or grabbing fist-fulls of Gopher jerseys on nearly every offensive play. Also, Minnesota was called for an illegal formation when Kansas had previously gotten away with the exact same violation.

2. Lack of a hurry-up offense - With 10:56 left in the game and down by fourteen points, the Gophers had the ball and were within striking distance of tying the game with two possessions. Minnesota ran almost five minutes off of the clock without scoring. They haven’t run a hurry-up offense all year, and extended huddles with the clock running during this drive was frustrating to watch. Hopefully Minnesota will develop a hurry-up offense for next year as players gain experience and maturity.

3. Todd Reesing’s accuracy - Kansas fans must have been ecstatic, but it was excruciatingly frustrating to watch him throw every pass right on the numbers.

Likes

1. Gophers’ offensive adjustments - Minnesota added some new formations to their offense that should compliment the core spread offense in years to come. Having a power running option for goal line and short yardage situations balances out some of the inherent shortcomings of the spread offense.

2. David Pittman - Pittman was injured for the majority of the 2008 season, but was finally let loose against Kansas. His first quarter bomb to Eric Decker was long overdue. Hopefully 2009 will have a healthy David Pittman more involved in the offense.

3. Da’Jon McKnight - He was only in the game for the final drive but he has the size, speed, and agility to justify predicting a bright future for the freshman wide receiver.

4. The Gophers’ offensive line - While not dominant, the Gophers’ offensive line exhibited improvements in footwork, balance, and positioning versus the Kansas defense. Adam Weber actually had time to pass the football.

All in all, the 2009 Insight Bowl was a disappointment for Minnesota. Nobody expected Minnesota to win, but a victory would have been a great capstone for the 2008 season. Gopher fans can take consolation in knowing that while the game ended in a loss, the 2008 season wasn’t even supposed to end with a bowl game.

Bryant Allen committed to be a Gopher yesterday. If his listed 40 yard dash time of 4.3 is accurate, Allen should have an amazing future on the gridiron for the Golden Gophers. Not only is Allen a talented football player, but he’s also a three star recruit for basketball. As a general guideline, athletes who can play two Division 1 sports are usually exceptionally gifted: Bo Jackson, Julius Peppers, Charlie Ward, Eric Decker, etc. Allen is already listed as a commitment for Tubby Smith’s basketball program. Based upon video and the articles I’ve read, he should have a realistic opportunity to see playing time at both TCF Bank Stadium and The Barn.

While the Minnesota siege of Camp Randall was almost a successful campaign, “almost”  enters the record book indifferent from “never had a chance.”  Wisconsin did not play a good football game, but Minnesota made too many mistakes to pull out a win.  The Gophers almost lifted Paul Bunyan’s axe from the grounds of Camp Randall Stadium, but injuries and inexperience hobbled their effort and they fell under the very axe they sought.

Despite several mistakes and costly turnovers by Minnesota, Wisconsin only won by three points.  A top tier Division 1 team would have won by a much larger margin if given a three-car garage sized window of opportunity.  Each of the following events and decisions would have resulted in a different outcome for the game:

1. The fumble on the opening drive.  This one seems obvious, but it resulted in seven points towards a three point win.
2. Playing “not to lose” with 2:05 left in the first half.  An effective hurry-up offense could have tried to implement a series of sideline passes in order to drive into enemy territory for an  attempted score.  However, the coaching decision on this one may have been a good one since Minnesota’s young receivers, Adam Weber’s inconsistency, and Joel Monroe’s kicking had been liabilities in past weeks.  The point is that a strong offense would have had the confidence to run the two-minute drill.  Even a field goal could have sent the game to overtime.
3. Shady Salamon’s fumble with 7:55 left in the game.  Adam Weber pitched the ball behind Salamon instead of hitting him in stride.  This one also cost the Gophers seven points.
4. Adam Weber’s Decker-less struggles.  Many of his passes have been off-target.  Even the touchdown to Brodrick Smith was underthrown.  Several completions did not hit wide open receivers in stride (including the fumbled pitch to Salamon).  He appeared uncomfortable during the hurry-up offense near the end of the game and threw an interception.  Great quarterbacks shine under pressure and command the hurry-up offense in the two-minute drill.  Long term, losing Eric Decker for a few games may be the best thing that happened to Adam Weber.  Before the injury, Weber would try to force the ball to Decker without giving consideration to other wide receivers.  Now, he is being forced to read the defense and track multiple targets.  Remember the Brett Favre era for the Packers?  Almost every time he established a primary receiver who accumulated impressive statistics, the receiver would leave for a big payday.  Favre never missed a step, and would proceed to make average receivers appear extraordinary.
5. David Gilreath.  Gilreath chose to abandon his home state of Minnesota in order to play for Wisconsin.  Gilreath had a few key receptions for the Badgers.  He is a talented wide receiver who as a Gopher would have given Weber another dangerous target.  If Gilreath had remained home to be a Gopher, the final score probably would have been different.  Apparently the access to abundant fried cheese, liquor stores on Sunday, and the peace and quiet of the Wisconsin countryside is more desirable than an active, thriving metropolis with professional teams for every major sport.

The bottom line is that a three point loss to Wisconsin and a game ending touchdown by Northwestern are the difference between a 9-2 and a 7-4 record for Minnesota.  As the coaching staff bring in talented recruits and the young Gopher team matures, the program should continue to improve.  It just isn’t easy to watch a winnable game fall under the axe once again.

Folk tales of Minnesota and Wisconsin often include that of the legendary lumberjack Paul Bunyan.  Paul Bunyan was a giant who at birth required five storks to be delivered.  There are those who doubt whether Paul Bunyan ever actually existed.  For others, the 10,000 lakes of Minnesota could have been made by nothing other than his feet.  Since 1948 the axe of the legendary Paul Bunyan has been held by the victor of the Minnesota/Wisconsin football game.

Wisconsin’s Camp Randall Stadium was built in 1917 and named after Wisconsin governor Alexander Randall.  Randall organized Union troops for the Civil War at a camp on the grounds where the stadium now stands.  If Paul Bunyan’s axe is to return to Minnesota, the Gophers must invade Camp Randall and emerge victorious.

Wisconsin fans will be battle-ready for Saturday’s game.  In Madison there are four primary ways to spend time: drinking beer, eating fried cheese curds, watching football, and drinking beer.  The Gophers will not be welcome in Madison and the environment will be hostile to say the least.

Minnesota will be without star wide receiver Eric Decker…that is unless a Wisconsin reporter called a Tim Brewster bluff.  After watching Decker hobble against Michigan, I’d be surprised to see him on the field.  Minnesota mustered only six points versus Michigan and has struggled on offense as of late.

After starting off the season 3-0, Wisconsin has lost five of seven big ten games.  However, last week the Badgers put up 601 total yards of offense including 441 yards rushing versus Indiana.  Fortunately, Minnesota has been stronger against the rush than the pass.  Wisconsin lacks the two things that have troubled the Gophers the most: a mobile quarterback and a proficient passing game.  Despite Wisconsin’s potential to be an offensive juggernaut, the Gopher defense just might match up well against the Badgers’ power running game.

The Gophers will have the deck stacked against them versus the Badgers.  Expect the Gopher defense to have a strong showing.  Without Eric Decker or home field advantage, Minnesota will need to have someone step up at wide receiver in order for the offense to be effective.  At this time last year, who would have thought that offense would be Minnesota’s greatest concern?

Paul Bunyan’s axe belongs to the state in which he left his footprints.  If a few young Gophers can unexpectedly have breakout performances, perhaps Camp Randall can be plundered.

Minnesota’s offense only mustered 105 yards passing and 83 yards rushing versus a Michigan defense that is statistically in the bottom three of the Big Ten for points allowed, total yards per game, and passing yards allowed.  What happened?  The spread offense relies on multiple offensive threats “spread” across the field in order to isolate and expose the weaknesses of the defense.  Injuries to Eric Decker and the offensive line exposed the Gophers’ greatest weaknesses: inexperience and a lack of depth.  Effectively, a few injuries spread out the Gopher offense too thin.

Eric Decker is the catalyst for the Minnesota offense.  Throughout the year, opposing defenses have had their best defensive back on him along with another defender in position for double team coverage.  Decker still put up huge numbers.  In doing so, he forced opposing defenses to assign less capable defenders to other Gopher receivers.  The result?  A potent passing attack.  With Decker injured, the game plan changed for opposing defenses. 

The Gophers do have talented receivers in addition to Eric Decker.  Tight end Jack Simmons is an NFL prospect.  However, as a tight end he doesn’t offer the blazing wide receiver speed that the spread offense requires.  Tight ends in the spread will usually benefit from having wide receivers that distract the defense and allow them to get open.  Brandon Green, Da’Jon McKnight, Xzavian Brandon, and Brodrick Smith (the freshmen four wide receivers)have the potential to develop into solid players.  All of them are true freshmen and will need time to learn the finesse aspects of Division I route running.  Inexperience does not mean lack of talent.  David Pittman has the potential to be a solid receiving option, but has been dealing with an injury most of the year.

The Minnesota offensive line has suffered several injuries throughout the year.  Against Michigan, the O-line had two freshmen and a sophomore up against an experienced defensive line.  Give these young linemen another year or two of maturity and weight training, and perhaps Adam Weber will have more time in the pocket while Deleon Eskridge has wider running lanes.

The bottom line is that an injury to Eric Decker and a few injuries to the offensive line exposed Minnesota’s inexperience and lack of depth.  Minnesota’s strong start to the season was dependent upon a starting lineup that in many places was one-deep.  Fortunately, there are several young players on the team who should develop into solid players and give the program depth in the coming years.  Next year the offensive line will have another year of experience and strength training, Eric Decker plans to return, the freshmen four wide receivers will be sophomores, David Pittman will still be here, and the team will be joined by both five star junior college receiver Hayo Carpenter and the talented Minneapolis tight end Ra’Shede Hageman. 

Despite a 7-3 record, a bowl-eligible season, a new stadium in 2009, and a coach of the year candidate, Minnesota still has plenty of room for talented recruits who are looking to contribute.

- At Golden Gopher Football Blog, the following prediciton was made:

Juice, Benn, Vontae Davis, “Andy” Dufrene and company are a tall task for your Golden Gophers to overcome, and while I don’t see a big Ski-U-Mah upset, I do think they keep it interesting.

- The Daily Gopher has an in-depth interview with an Illinois blogger (Paint the Town Orange) that can be read by clicking here.  His feelings regarding the chances for a Gopher victory:

From what I saw last week against Indiana I have serious doubts as to how good Minnesota is. Illinois does not statistically rank very high but I would wager it is a much better defense than Bowling Green FAU or Montana State. If Minnesota is close or wins this game, I will frankly be shocked and very disappointed.

- Goldy from Down With Goldy…well…he isn’t in the mood for a prediction:

Want some Gopher news? Well it’s really too bad for you then. You should probably read a blog that isn’t written by a drunken retard.

Kent Youngblood of the Star Tribune quotes a discussion with Tim Brewster in his blog:

“Everybody understands the deal with the homecoming opponent,” Brewster said. “You’re picked because, for the most part, you think that it’s a victory for your school. That’s age-old. That goes back 100 years. So it is what it is.”

- Kent Youngblood also has some interesting statistics for the gameday preview in an article that can be read by clicking here.

- Marcus Fuller quotes Traye Simmons ragarding Marcus Sherels’ shoulder injury in his Pioneer Press blog:

“I have to pick up the slack, as well as other guys in the secondary,” Simmons said. “The backups for Marcus also have to pick up the slack. We have to just go out and play. They have to me, the best receiving core that we’ve played thus far — size and speed wise. We have to stop the run, force them to pass and make plays on the ball.”

- Marcus Fuller also notes in this article that Eric Decker is leading the nation in receiving yards.

- Myron Medcalf of the Star Tribune has an up close and personal article about Juice Williams.

- Patrick Reusse wrote a Star Tribune article focusing on the improving Gopher defense.

- MNdaily.com has an article on kicker Joel Monroe.

- In another MNdaily.com article Adam Weber comments:

“I think a lot of people are concerned or nervous that we’re throwing to Eric too much,” Weber said. “I don’t think that’s a problem; kid catches the ball, what’s the problem with that?”

Predictions and previews for the upcoming game between the Gophers and the Illini will soon be available at many different blogs, newspapers, and websites.  This article will not cover the formidable talent of Illinois quarterback Juice Williams, the dangerous passing duo of Adam Weber to Eric Decker, or the similarities of the Tim Brewster and the Ron Zook rebuilding strategies.  Instead, this article will attempt to compare both teams in a fair, unbiased, and unemotional manner.  How is that possible?  Let’s try something new and different…comparing team statistics.  Sound like fun?  Why not give it a try? 

Let’s take a look at the strength of the opponents that both Minnesota and Illinois have faced.  Rankings are from the CBSsports.com Top 120 rankings updated on Tuesday.  Neither Eastern Illinois or Montana State were in the top 120, so both were assigned a rank of 121:

Illinois has faced a tougher schedule based upon both the average and the median of opponent rankings.  Minnesota’s most highly rated victory was against 75th ranked Indiana, while Illinois’ was against 53rd ranked Michigan.  Illinois was also in a week 1 shootout with 3rd ranked Missouri, losing by just 10 points in a game that featured 94 points scored.  With the stronger portfolio of wins, a victory versus a more highly rated team, and a close game with a top 5 team it is fair to surmise that Illinois has a slight advantage.  Advantage Illinois.

Now for an offensive comparison.  Both teams have productive spread offenses, as can be viewed in the following table:

* Illinois statistics are prorated to match the Gophers’ 6 games.

Illinois has a clear advantage for rushing yardage.  Interestingly, Minnesota has committed nearly half as many turnovers on offense.  Total passing yardage only differs by 42 yards, which is too close to declare a definitive difference.  With superior rushing yardage and an extra five points per game, Illinois has stronger numbers.  Offensive advantage Illinois.

Minnesota defensive coordinator Ted Roof has the Gopher defense playing fundamentally sound, aggressive, flat-out nasty defense.  How does the new look Gopher defense stack up against Illinois?:

* Illinois statistics are prorated to match the Gophers’ 6 games.

Minnesota has a clear lead in defending the run, while Illinois has a slight lead in defensing the pass.  Minnesota has forced more turnovers, and has allowed significantly fewer points per game with 18.5 versus 29.6 for Illinois.  Defensive advantage Minnesota.

CBSsports.com’s Top 120 ranks Minnesota 33rd and Illinois 35th.  Looking at statistics for strength of schedule, offense and defense Illinois looks better than Minnesota in two of the three categories.  Also, the offensive and defensive statistics are likely skewed since Illinois faced more difficult opponents.  Throw in home field advantage, and the Gophers are definitely the underdogs in this matchup. 

Based solely upon available statistics, Illinois is the favorite.  That shouldn’t suprise anyone.  Besides an improved Gopher defense, there is one other wild card statistic that could give the Gophers hope.  The Gophers have a turnover margin of + 10 while the Illini are only + 1.  What does that mean?  The Illini are far more likely to throw an interception or fumble away possession than the Gophers.  If Juice Williams could just throw a few interceptions or if the Gophers could recover a few fumbles…anything could happen.

Despite losing their first game of the season last week against Ohio State, the Gophers were able to bounce back on Saturday with the first Big Ten win of the Tim Brewster era.  The hangover effect from the Ohio State loss was the likely culprit for Minnesota’s flat play on offense.  Watching the plethora of Gopher mistakes was the equivalent of a three hour root canal without Novocaine.  Luckily, Indiana’s offense had even more bloopers and blunders than Minnesota.  Come January, all that will matter from this week will be a Gopher win.

There is good news from Saturday.  Very good news.  Indiana came into the game averaging 31 points per game.  The Gopher defense held a talented, dynamic, potent offense to seven points.  Indiana was only able to muster 49 yards rushing and 244 yards passing.  The only Hoosier touchdown and 77 of the passing yards came from one lapse in coverage by the Gopher secondary.  In the first five games of the season, the Gophers had given up an average of 21 points per game.  The defense is definitely looking up.

Defensive coordinator Ted Roof has the Minnesota defense playing with a level of confidence that I’ve never seen before.  I wrote a previous entry about Roof that you can view by clicking here.  Ted Roof was a star linebacker for the 1985 and 1986 Georgia Tech defense nicknamed the Black Watch.  The intensity, ferocity, and aggressive relentlessness that the Gopher defense exhibited seems similar to the legendary Black Watch.  The Black Watch defense was famous for intimidating opponents with vicious hits and the swagger of gladiators.  If the Minnesota defense continues to play like they did on Saturday, perhaps they will earn a nickname of their own.

The Gopher offense made mistakes that were primarily due to either inexperience or Indiana’s strong defensive line.  Coming off of a loss to Ohio State in Columbus probably contributed to inexperienced players’ fundamental lapses.  Troy Stoudermire’s fumbled punt return was likely due to thinking about the run before the catch.  Deleon Eskridge’s fumble was due to carrying the ball on the wrong side.  Eskridge’s mistake was also noticed by The Daily Gopher as noted in their game reaction.  Besides Eric Decker, the young Minnesota wide receivers were generally unable to get open and make plays.  As they learn the offense and the art of route-running they should improve.  The Indiana defensive line and pass rush was impressive, with Jammie Kirlew blasting past the line on nearly every pass play.  Adam Weber had little time to pass from the pocket and was often forced to scramble or hurry his throws.  Having seen the Gophers’ offensive line face a few other teams, I credit Indiana for having a strong pass rush.

Minnesota must learn from their mistakes on offense and continue to play formidable defense as they prepare to face Illinois.  For now, a win is a win.  For tomorrow, it is imperative that Saturday’s victory teaches two lessons for the young Gopher team: 1) Remember fundamentals to avoid turnovers, and 2) Attitude and swagger can transform defensive players into intimidating warriors. 

Oh, one other thing…next time the Gophers have too many hard shots of Buckeye they need to sleep it off before the next game.

Here’s a video recap of the game: