Buck Bravo

Speed, size, agility, awareness, skill.  College football recruits are given star ratings each year based upon these factors.  Occasionally talented players will be missed by the recruiting services, but teams in the BCS bowl games generally field five, four and a few three star players.  So, where have the Gopher players ranked over the last few years and how are they looking for 2009?  

For Part 1 of this endeavor, let’s start with the offense.  A list of offensive line starters for 2006-2008 could not be found, so receivers and backs are featured this analysis.  If a list of 2006-2008 offensive line starters could be passed along, I’ll add another analysis in a future post.  A few notes: 1) Since there will be four running backs in 2009, I could not include them all.  I left Bennett off of the list because his knee injury is cause for concern.  2) I included David Pittman as the fourth wide receiver for 2009 since he will be a senior and started in the Insight Bowl.  He was injured for most of 2008.  Here’s how the Rivals’ star ratings for skill players on offense have changed since 2006 and could look for 2009:

Here’s a graph of the average Rivals’ star ratings for 2006-2009:

Now, this graph does not take into account player age.  Older players will inevitably be bigger, stronger, and better than they were as freshmen.  While the graph is interesting in that the 2006-2008 changes in star averages correlate to on-field performance, I doubt that 2009 will feature an astronomical improvement in offensive performance.  However, it is realistic to expect a marginal improvement over prior years.  Eric Decker should have three four star receivers to compliment his play.  The addition of Hasan Lipscomb should add an explosive running back.  Adam Weber will finally be an upperclassman.  Time will tell who actually takes the field on the offense, but as of right now star rating trend lines are heading in the right direction.  Check back tomorrow for a similar analysis of the defense.

In my prior post, I promised to review Ohio State media and blogs prior to Saturday’s matchup.  I’ll make that post before Saturday.  For now, let’s briefly review overall team offense and defense statistics for Big Ten teams heading into conference play. 

Statistical comparisons of Big Ten teams are not entirely fair since non-conference schedules were of different difficulty levels.  While the Gophers were playing Montana State, Ohio State was playing USC.  Regardless of the strength of schedules, there are some interesting statistical observations to be made amongst Big Ten teams.

Let’s start with the offenses:

* Statistics for teams that have only played three games have been prorated

The Gophers are tied for second in the Big Ten with 36.3 points per game.  The Gophers have solid passing numbers with 967 yards placing them fourth in the conference.  The running game is eighth in the conference.  Hopefully the running game will continue to improve as Deleon Eskridge and Shady Salamon continue to pick up where Duane Bennett left off.

And now for the defense:

Despite last week’s stellar performance, the Gophers are seventh in the conference for total points allowed.  Middle of the pack performance in the Big Ten is definitely an improvement from last year.  Tying for first place with eight interceptions is likely not a fluke, as the revamped secondary appears to be the real deal.  With a new coordinator and several new and young players, expect the defense to continue to improve over the course of the year.

Look for a new post tomorrow reviewing Ohio State blog and media predictions.

Saturday’s game versus Montana State could be the most important game of the year.  Why?

1. Losing to Montana State would be devastating.  The Gophers are not expected to win versus teams such as Ohio State or even Bowling Green.  Analysts and fans expect the Gophers to defeat Montana State.  If Montana State pulls off a win after losing to Kansas State by a score of 69-10, all of the momentum and excitement that the Gophers built up from the first two weeks of the season will be lost.  Do I think it likely that Montana State will win?  Absolutely not.  However, the Gophers need to make sure that they show up to play.
2. The Gophers have two games left to prepare for the Big Ten.  The Gophers will be facing a tough and determined opponent next week in Florida Atlantic.  Last year Florida Atlantic defeated the Gophers.  This week may be the best chance for the Gophers to fine tune the offense and defense.  Some of the younger players can hopefully gain enough experience to be Big Ten ready.  It is important that the Gophers build a big lead in this game early on.  If second and third string players can see some action in the second half, the Gophers’ depth chart will have game-day experience heading into Big Ten play.  An early lead would allow the starters to remain rested and healthy for Florida Atlantic.
3. The offensive line and running backs can be evaluated.  Last week’s injuries to Jeff Tow-Arnett, Ned Tavale, and Duane Bennett were the only downside of the Bowling Green game.  The Gophers should have an opportunity to test out some different players in order to solidify a young offensive line and evaluate their running backs.

I expect the Gophers to win, and win big.  In my opinion, this is the most important game of the year since it is the only remaining game that the Gophers absolutely MUST win.

On another note, I hope that David Pittman can finally see the field.  I’ve been looking forward to finding out how the Gophers will use him in the spread offense.  Just for kicks, here’s a formation that I’d be thrilled to see the Gophers use.  I left the receivers and running backs off of the diagram since they could be aligned any number of ways.  I call this the “side-by-side shotgun“:

Just to be clear, I have no delusions that the Gophers would ever take anything on this website seriously.  That being said, wouldn’t this be a fun formation to occasionally see them run?  Defenses key on the quarterback’s eyes and body language.  If there were two potential quarterbacks in the play, the level of defensive confusion would be monumental.  Both Weber and Pittman are gifted athletes able to pass, run, and receive the football.  Just imagine the possibilities…

Duane Bennett started off the season with two solid games, and appeared to be well on his way to becoming the next great Gopher running back.  Bennett was quick, he could break tackles, he was a good receiver, and he was a great pass blocker.  Unfortunately, a knee injury suffered in last Saturday’s game versus Bowling Green will sideline him for the rest of the season.

While Bennett will definitely be missed this year, his injury provides an opportunity for three true freshmen.  Junior Jay Thomas is a talented back, but his durability is a question mark after having both of his knees reconstructed.  My prior post on Thomas can be viewed here.  I would not be surprised if either Shady Salamon, Deleon Eskridge, or Kevin Whaley steps up and haves a big season.  Here’s some statistics and analyses on the three freshmen running backs:

Shady Salamon -Salamon is currently the favorite to become the featured running back for the Gophers.  Last year at this time he was the featured running back for Cretin-Derham Hall High School in Saint Paul.  Click on this link for his senior year high school statistics.  Salamon looked solid against Bowling Green with a few powerful runs and sound technique.  I’ll agree with other analysts and reporters that Salamon is the favorite to win the starting job.

Deleon Eskridge - Juniper Serra High School’s all time touchdown record was held by NFL Hall of Famer Lynn Swan until Deleon Eskridge came along.  From the videos I’ve seen, Eskridge is an excellent open field runner with experience against talented competition.  Click on this link for his senior year high school statistics.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back up Salamon along with junior Jay Thomas.  Here’s a link to a video of Eskridge in high school.

Kevin Whaley - Whaley was a first team all-state running back at Virginia’s Salem High School.  He rushed for 1661 yards and 25 touchdowns his senior year.  Whaley is definitely the underdog to become the starter, but with the numbers that he put up in high school don’t be suprised if he sees significant playing time.  Whaley is smaller than Salamon or Eskridge, but is very quick and makes great cuts on the field.

All three of these freshmen running backs have an opportunity to become regulars in the Gopher box scores over the next four years.  If any of them could have a run versus Montana State similar to the following video of Knowshon Moreno, expect the new featured running back to have arrived:

-Bad news.  Tim Brewster held a press conference today.  According to the Star Tribune, we’ve lost Duane Bennett for the season.  Jeff Tow-Arnett is day-to-day.  Ned Tavale may play Saturday.  Here’s the article.

- Marcus Fuller of the Pioneer Press discusses the backups for our three injured Gophers here.

- Adam Weber was among three players who share the honors of being named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week.  Check out the story at this Pioneer Press link.

- There’s not much out there about Montana State Football, but here’s a link to their roster for those who’d like to know more about the team.

- While this Fall most news coverage will be focused on the vote between Obama and McCain, my vote is that we should all be Down With Goldy.

- Former Gopher running back Marion Barber is becoming quite popular in Dallas as can be read in this Cowboys blog.  Meanwhile, his little brother Dominique Barber is listed as the Houston Texans’ backup strong safety.  Don’t mess with Texas.

-Troy Stoudermire has had a strong start for the Gophers.  Check out this video of his returns:

- This video may be two weeks old, but it is still fun to watch:

When looking back upon this season, defeating Bowling Green by a score of 42-17 will likely stand out as a big step in Tim Brewster’s rebuilding process.  Here are my thoughts from my post previewing the game:

The Gopher offense should have a strong showing.  Will the Gophers demonstrate defensive improvement versus last year with the addition of JUCO players and new defensive coordinator Ted Roof?  That question may determine the outcome of the game.

Adam Weber has come of age at quarterback.  His passes were crisp, timed well, and carefully placed to avoid turnovers.  Most importantly, his offense had 0 turnovers.  Eric Decker looked like an All American with athletic catches, explosive bursts of speed after the catch, and hard-nosed physical play.  I thoroughly enjoyed watching Weber make a perfect option pitch to Decker for a touchdown.  Weber went to Mounds View High School, where the quarterback option is a way of life.  He’s probably been running that play since junior high.  Ben Kuznia also impressed me with precise route running, clutch catches, and great downfield blocking.  Duane Bennett exhibited multi-dimensional talent with his receiving, rushing, and pass-blocking.  Shady Salamon was attacking the line of scrimmage, avoiding direct hits by the defense, and pushing forward after contact.  Even though he’s a true freshman, he looked like an experienced veteran.  I have no idea what a VO2MAX test is, but here’s a clip of Salamon’s:

The biggest issues that I have with the offense are related to injuries.  If the Gophers lose Duane Bennett, Ned Tavale, or Jeff Tow-Arnett to Saturday’s injuries the depth carts will be tested.  Bennett is having an MRI on his knee, which doesn’t sound good.

Ted Roof’s defense was vastly improved versus last year’s Bowling Green game.  I thought that Roof did a very good job of calling the right defensive formations to stop Bowling Green.  Most of Bowling Green’s big plays appeared to be due to mistakes by our players or the athleticism of Bowling Green.  The defense definitely has a swagger in that they thrive off of hard hits and physical play.  Tramaine Brock was all over the field.  Simoni Lawrence was hitting like a Mack truck.  The defensive line was tough and relentless.  Lee Campbell made some big hits and plugged up the middle of the field.  The defense is still young and inexperienced, which led to some breakdowns in coverage and gap assignments.  JUCOs Tramaine Brock, Traye Simmons, and Simoni Lawrence have given the defense a shot of adrenaline.  However, there were still too many successful Bowling Green plays that were due to lack of athleticism on the Gopher’s defense.  Bowling Green is a team with athletic players, but there’s definitely a need for the Gophers to bring in more defensive talent.  Overall, our defense is much better than last year and should be in the middle of the Big Ten pack come the end of non-conference play.

ESPNU displayed an interesting statistic during the game: The Gophers have the third fewest seniors on the roster of any Division I team.  The Gophers should continue to become a better football team as they mature and acclimate themselves to playing as a team.  ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg mentioned that the Gopher’s are “turning the corner” at this page.  I’m going to make a bold prediction after last night’s game:

We’ll be going to Detroit, a cornucopia of tourism and winter delight, for the Motor City Bowl come December.

The Golden Gopher Football Blog gives a good recap of the game, and The Daily Gopher also has several talking points on the game.  Both are great reads.

The second long touchdown pass from Chandler Harnish to Nathan Palmer evoked nightmares of a year gone by for many in Gopher Nation.  But 1998 is not 1997, and Father Time and Fate granted a different outcome on the gridiron battleground.  The Gophers looked very good at times and shaky at others, but in the end pulled out a victory.

In my prior post, I predicted a 45-17 win for the Gophers.  I can speculate on what might have happened if Eric Decker’s touchdown hadn’t been taken away and Ryan Collado’s blown coverage hadn’t resulted in two touchdowns.  The bottom line is that the score of 31-27, while a win, was far different from what I expected.  Here’s my take on the offense:

Adam Weber appeared to be a more accurate passer than this time last year.  Besides Eric Decker, the options that Weber had as wide receiver targets were sparse.  Weber looked more mature and confident at quarterback, but he was telegraphing his passes.  Good linebackers and defensive backs key on the quarterback’s eyes, and Weber is giving them plenty of warning as to where he plans on throwing the ball.  While he had a great game versus Northern Illinois, teams with quicker defensive personnel could take advantage of this tendency.  If he can learn to avoid staring down his primary target, he could become an elite NCAA passer.  That’s a BIG IF, because if he continues to telegraph passes expect the interceptions to be numerous versus top tier opponents.  It’s important to remember that he’s only a sophomore and should continue to mature and develop throughout the season.

Jack Simmons looked every bit the part of an NFL tight end.  If he can avoid injury, expect him to be a first or second round draft pick this coming Spring.  Nick Tow-Arnett also had some big time catches, demonstrating that he’s more than just a blocking tight end.

Eric Decker had a great day with 89 yards receiving and a touchdown, but I expected to see a few of the new freshmen wide receivers see the field.  Ralph Spry and Ben Kuznia are servicable, but Weber will need the likes of Brandon Green and Brodrick Smith on the field in order to have multiple open targets throughout the season.

The offensive line has some new starters, and at times I thought that their youth and inexperience was apparent.  Defensive end Larry English of NIU looked like a man among boys out on the field.  It’s too bad he isn’t wearing maroon and gold this year.  Adam Weber didn’t have enough time in the pocket, and the O-line needs to gel as the season goes on and they gain experience.

Duane Bennett had a solid game with 92 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries.  Most importantly, he didn’t fumble and he gave us proof of breakaway speed with a 61 yard touchdown run.  I did notice that on a few occasions he carried the ball with the inside hand.  Ahman Green has had a long career in the NFL while holding the ball in just his left hand, so as long as there aren’t any fumbles that’s a moot point (unless Bennett prevents himself from being able to stiff-arm a defender).  Bennett looks to have become a quick, elusive, and speedy back with good hands.  He’s a great fit for the Gopher’s spread offense.

If Adam Weber continues to develop while avoiding telegraphed passes, a few freshmen wide receivers step up and play to expectations, and the young offensive line gels, we could be in for another record setting offense in 2008.  I’ll be back to analyze the defense and conclude my game 1 recap Monday evening.  Until then, enjoy the following video link sent to me by a reader.

Come Saturday evening all of the news, hype, optimism, pessimism, and speculation will be irrelevant as the Gophers give us a showing of realism on the field.  The 2008 season opener will show Gopher Nation how much the returning Gophers have progressed since last year, how talented the junior college transfers are, and how the defense looks under new defensive coordinator Ted Roof.  Based upon this video of last year’s NIU team versus Tulane, I expect the Gopher offense to have a strong showing: 

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With a year of running the spread offense under his belt, I expect Adam Weber to have a strong showing at quarterback and showcase his skills.  Signs of progress from last year would be audibles that result in successful plays, checking down the first receiver option for secondary and tertiary options, and accurate passing on slant patterns and out routes.  Eric Decker should remain his primary target and have a solid game.  Expect Duane Bennett to receive the bulk of the carries, and keep an eye on Jay Thomas to see if he can make confident cuts with his reconstructed knees.

There are high hopes for the revamped Gopher secondary.  Junior college transfer Traye Simmons was touted as a shut-down corner, and hopefully will live up to his nickname of “Big Play Traye.”  Another junior college transfer, Tramaine Brock, will have a chance to legitimize his reputation as a ferocious hitter with blazing speed.  Kyle Theret is the only returning member of the defensive backfield who will be starting.  Marcus Sherels, who switched to cornerback from wide receiver, can affirm reports that the transition was for the best.  According to this blog, NIU has a question mark at quarterback.  I’d be very concerned if the Gopher secondary doesn’t have a strong showing.

The Gopher linebackers are somewhat of a question mark, with Steve Davis the only returning starter at the top of the depth chart.  Lee Campbell has the size to be a solid middle linebacker.  Simoni Lawrence, another junior college transfer, has been solid in practice as a hybrid defensive back/linebacker.  At just over 200 pounds, I just hope that he can hold up to the physical punishment of playing linebacker.  I will also be curoius as to how/if junior college transfer Rex Sharpe will be used in the linebacker rotation.

The defensive line will need to demonstrate improvement with the pass rush.  Hopefully junior college transfer Cedric McKinley will show that his size and speed can translate into performance on the field as a defensive end.  Eric Small’s added size, along with the addition of freshman Jewhan Edwards, should make a difference in run-stopping ability.  Justin Anderson of NIU had over 1200 rushing yards last year, and will be a good test for the defense.

I expect the Gophers to have a solid performance against NIU, and would be surprised if the game is even close.  Actually, I’d be VERY concerned if this game is close.  I’ll predict a final score of 45-17 in favor of the Gophers.

Heading into the 2008 season, Duane Bennett is likely to be the starting running back for the Gophers.  While Bennett will likely accumulate the most carries by the end of the season, a healthy Jay Thomas may suprise many with a solid junior year.  Thomas was sidetracked in 2006 and 2007 by knee injuries, and while showing flashes of high level performance he wasn’t able to see the field enough to adequately showcase his skills.

Jay Thomas was a Rivals.com three star recruit and ranked the 18th best all-purpose back in the nation coming out of high school.  At Minnesota’s Tartan High School, he rushed for a school record 1549 yards in 2004.  He had very good speed and was an accomplished sprinter.  After redshirting in 2005, he was predicted by some to pick up where Barber and Maroney had left off.  Unfortunately for Thomas, he was derailed by season ending knee injuries requiring ACL surgery in two consecutive seasons.  Success in 2008 will likely be determined by his ability to avoid injury and handle the physical punishment of Big Ten football.

In order for the Gophers to be successful this year, they must have depth at running back.  Duane Bennett and Jay Thomas could be an effective running back duo, with a few other newcomers ensuring that the depth charts aren’t shallow.  If Jay Thomas can stay healthy for a full season, he has the talent to become a very good running back in the Big Ten.