Buck Bravo

The rivalries and comparisons of major college conferences are usually settled in bowl games.  Advocates and fans of each conference often claim superiority of talent due to speed, size, smarts, and recruiting star ratings.  Let’s break down the number of draftees from each conference by round:

The SEC, as expected, had the most first round picks in the 2009 draft.  The Big 12 had a strong first round, but ended up even with the Big 10 for total number of draftees.

Following is a draft rating chart that weights the rankings for draft rounds (first round picks are more valuable that sixth) and the number of schools in each conference:

When the rankings are weighted, the SEC barely hangs on to a lead over the PAC 10.  The Big East leapfrogs the Big 10 and Big 12 due to having only eight schools in their conference.  The ACC drops down to last place due to having twelve schools in the conference and several late round picks.

While the rankings in both of the above charts shouldn’t be surprising, all of the conferences scored much more closely than some might expect.  All in all, the biggest college football conferences contributed rather evenly to the NFL in 2009.

Every February, college football news services release sensational reports about recruiting classes.  Is a great recruiting class truly sensational, or is it just sensationalism?  Teams that perennially reel in five and four star recruits such as USC, Florida, and Texas always seem to be in the hunt for the national championship.  But then there is Notre Dame, who despite fielding a team of blue chip talent has been mediocre the last few years.  Also, teams like Utah and Boise State will occasionally slip into BCS bowl games.  Let’s take a look at how Big Ten teams have finished the season with respect to the five recruiting classes that have contributed to the team that they fielded.  The rankings used for this analysis are simply Rivals’ Big Ten recruiting class rankings, from 1 to 11 for each respective year.  Teams that finished better than three positions above their five year recruiting rank average are highlighted in green.  Teams that were worse than three positions below their five year recruiting rank average are highlighted in red.  Here’s how 2008 panned out:

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In 2008, 9 of the 11 teams in the Big Ten finished the regular season within three spots of their average recruiting class.  Michigan, who had an abysmal season, was the only team to fall greater than three spots in the standings from what their average recruiting class would predict.  Northwestern’s surprising season also outperformed recruiting class predictions.

For 2007:

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In 2007, not a single team in the Big Ten either surpassed or fell short of three standing positions from their average recruiting class rank.  Illinois’ 2nd place fairy tale and Minnesota’s last place nightmare were both within three positions of what the recruiting class averages would predict.

As for 2006:

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2006 had four teams that were outside of average recruiting class expectations.  Michigan State and Illinois finished at the bottom of the Big Ten, despite recruiting classes that should have placed them in the middle of the pack.  Indiana barely outperformed expectations, and Wisconsin finished second despite an average recruiting class smack dab in the middle of the Big Ten.

For the last three seasons (2006-2008), Big Ten teams have finished within three positions in the standings from their average recruiting class ranking  82% of the time.  Not a single team won the Big Ten that had an average recruiting class worse than 3.6.  If these statistics have a large enough sample size to be accurate, Big Ten fans can expect their favorite team to finish within three spots of the following predicted standings in 2009:

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3-0.  At the end of the season, that will be the only relevant statistic from this week.  After an emotional win on the road versus Bowling Green, the youth and inexperience of the Gopher Football team was apparent versus the Montana State Bobcats.  Despite numerous mistakes, Minnesota was still able to walk away with a win.  Perhaps a disappointing win versus Montana State will build character for the Gopher squad.  Here’s a few observations from Saturday:

Youth and Inexperience - The Gophers are one of the youngest teams in Division IA football.  In fact, they have the third fewest seniors of any Division IA team.  I can count ten true freshmen who have seen the field.  Most notable is that the offensive line has started and played a few redshirt freshmen.  Of any position in football besides quarterback, the offensive line benefits most from age and experience.

Defensive Chemistry - I’m able to count eight players who have seen the field on defense who were not wearing maroon and gold last year.  There is undoubtedly an upgrade in talent on the field with the addition of Tramaine Brock, Traye Simmons, Simoni Lawrence, Marcus Sherels and Cedric McKinley among others.  On several of the successful Montana State passing plays, including the first quarter touchdown, there were breakdowns in zone coverage.  The good news is that our defensive players were not beat by better athletes.  They made mistakes in coverage assignments.  It’s important to remember that many of these players have only been working together since August.  As the season progresses and players acclimate themselves to the system and to each other, expect fewer breakdowns in coverage.

Wide Receivers - Eric Decker is having an All American season.  Additional wide receivers need to step up and become threats before entering Big Ten play.  I’m still optimistic that the true freshmen quartet of Brandon Green, Xzavian Brandon, Brodrick Smith and Da’Jon McKnight are learning the complex Gopher spread offense and fine tuning their skills.  Adam Weber will need more options than Eric Decker and Jack Simmons to be successful in the Big Ten.

Deleon Eskridge - Deleon Eskridge had a great game with 114 yards rushing and three touchdowns.  When he was hit, he would continue to move forward.  He made great cuts and has Division I speed.  My previous post analyzed the options for replacing Duane Bennett, and it appears that the answer is Deleon Eskridge.

After last week’s victory at Bowling Green, it was easy to overlook that the Gophers are a young and inexperienced team.  Expect the Gophers to improve as the year progresses, but expect growing pains along the way.  The Golden Gopher Football blog gives a nice gameday recap including a statistical analysis.  Rome wasn’t built in a day.  Here’s a great video recap of the game:

-Bad news.  Tim Brewster held a press conference today.  According to the Star Tribune, we’ve lost Duane Bennett for the season.  Jeff Tow-Arnett is day-to-day.  Ned Tavale may play Saturday.  Here’s the article.

- Marcus Fuller of the Pioneer Press discusses the backups for our three injured Gophers here.

- Adam Weber was among three players who share the honors of being named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week.  Check out the story at this Pioneer Press link.

- There’s not much out there about Montana State Football, but here’s a link to their roster for those who’d like to know more about the team.

- While this Fall most news coverage will be focused on the vote between Obama and McCain, my vote is that we should all be Down With Goldy.

- Former Gopher running back Marion Barber is becoming quite popular in Dallas as can be read in this Cowboys blog.  Meanwhile, his little brother Dominique Barber is listed as the Houston Texans’ backup strong safety.  Don’t mess with Texas.

-Troy Stoudermire has had a strong start for the Gophers.  Check out this video of his returns:

- This video may be two weeks old, but it is still fun to watch:

When looking back upon this season, defeating Bowling Green by a score of 42-17 will likely stand out as a big step in Tim Brewster’s rebuilding process.  Here are my thoughts from my post previewing the game:

The Gopher offense should have a strong showing.  Will the Gophers demonstrate defensive improvement versus last year with the addition of JUCO players and new defensive coordinator Ted Roof?  That question may determine the outcome of the game.

Adam Weber has come of age at quarterback.  His passes were crisp, timed well, and carefully placed to avoid turnovers.  Most importantly, his offense had 0 turnovers.  Eric Decker looked like an All American with athletic catches, explosive bursts of speed after the catch, and hard-nosed physical play.  I thoroughly enjoyed watching Weber make a perfect option pitch to Decker for a touchdown.  Weber went to Mounds View High School, where the quarterback option is a way of life.  He’s probably been running that play since junior high.  Ben Kuznia also impressed me with precise route running, clutch catches, and great downfield blocking.  Duane Bennett exhibited multi-dimensional talent with his receiving, rushing, and pass-blocking.  Shady Salamon was attacking the line of scrimmage, avoiding direct hits by the defense, and pushing forward after contact.  Even though he’s a true freshman, he looked like an experienced veteran.  I have no idea what a VO2MAX test is, but here’s a clip of Salamon’s:

The biggest issues that I have with the offense are related to injuries.  If the Gophers lose Duane Bennett, Ned Tavale, or Jeff Tow-Arnett to Saturday’s injuries the depth carts will be tested.  Bennett is having an MRI on his knee, which doesn’t sound good.

Ted Roof’s defense was vastly improved versus last year’s Bowling Green game.  I thought that Roof did a very good job of calling the right defensive formations to stop Bowling Green.  Most of Bowling Green’s big plays appeared to be due to mistakes by our players or the athleticism of Bowling Green.  The defense definitely has a swagger in that they thrive off of hard hits and physical play.  Tramaine Brock was all over the field.  Simoni Lawrence was hitting like a Mack truck.  The defensive line was tough and relentless.  Lee Campbell made some big hits and plugged up the middle of the field.  The defense is still young and inexperienced, which led to some breakdowns in coverage and gap assignments.  JUCOs Tramaine Brock, Traye Simmons, and Simoni Lawrence have given the defense a shot of adrenaline.  However, there were still too many successful Bowling Green plays that were due to lack of athleticism on the Gopher’s defense.  Bowling Green is a team with athletic players, but there’s definitely a need for the Gophers to bring in more defensive talent.  Overall, our defense is much better than last year and should be in the middle of the Big Ten pack come the end of non-conference play.

ESPNU displayed an interesting statistic during the game: The Gophers have the third fewest seniors on the roster of any Division I team.  The Gophers should continue to become a better football team as they mature and acclimate themselves to playing as a team.  ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg mentioned that the Gopher’s are “turning the corner” at this page.  I’m going to make a bold prediction after last night’s game:

We’ll be going to Detroit, a cornucopia of tourism and winter delight, for the Motor City Bowl come December.

The Golden Gopher Football Blog gives a good recap of the game, and The Daily Gopher also has several talking points on the game.  Both are great reads.

The Minnesota Golden Gopher’s matchup versus Bowling Green will be a litmus test for the Gopher’s improvement since last year.  Bowling Green knocked off #25 Pittsburgh in their season opener, and after having defeated the Gophers at the Metrodome last year by a score of 32-31 in overtime will now host the Gophers at home.  Bowling Green fans are confident that they should win this game, as written in this Bowling Green blog.

Pittsburgh held Bowling Green to 64 yards rushing, but racked up 190 yards and two touchdowns passing.  The Gophers will need to stop the Bowling Green passing game in order to win.  Last week, the Gopher secondary gave up two big touchdowns on passing plays by Northern Illinois.  In both instances, the third defensive back Ryan Collado was beat.  Hopefully replacing Collado with Troy Stoudermire or Tim Dandridge will make a difference while in the nickel package. 

If the Gopher offense scores between 28 and 40 points and the Gopher defense can prevent big plays, I think that the Gophers have a legitimate chance of winning.  If David Pittman’s hamstring is finally healed, expect him to add another dangerous option for Adam Weber in addition to Eric Decker and Jack Simmons.  However, if the Gopher offense commits too many turnovers or the defense fails to stop the pass, Bowling Green could hand Minnesota their first loss of the year.  Bowling Green had an interception and forced three fumbles against Pittsburgh, which likely determined the outcome of the game. 

Expect Bowling Green to play slightly better than they did against the Gophers last year.  The Gopher offense should have a strong showing.  Will the Gophers demonstrate defensive improvement versus last year with the addition of JUCO players and new defensive coordinator Ted Roof?  That question may determine the outcome of the game.  I conducted a survey at the ever-reliable Gopher Hole chat board asking what area of the defense is the Gophers’ greatest weakness:

It looks like most Gopher fans think that the defensive line is our greatest liability.  Let’s hope that they can put some pressure on the Bowling Green quarterback and give the defensive backs a chance to attack some forced passes.

If the Gophers can avoid turnovers and control the Bowling Green passing game, this game could be a telltale sign of good things to come for the Golden Gophers.

- This article from the Pioneer Press leads me to believe that Tim Brewster will not be outworked.  He may, however, be outslept by other coaches.

- The Gopher Preseason Blog noted that the players found a picture of Brewster with a mustache while at Illinois.  Could this video be the culprit?:

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- From the Star Tribune, I’m beginning to think that Patrick Reusse will heckle Tim Brewster unless the Gophers go 13-0.

- This Northwester blogger isn’t predicting a single Gopher to be an all-conference selection for the Big Ten.

- Here’s a great preview article of the new TCF Bank Stadium from the Star Tribune.

- According to this blog, it looks like former Gopher running back Gary Russell is down to fourth string with the Steelers.  However, Marion Barber is looking to start for the Cowboys, as mentioned here.

- Terrelle Pryor of Ohio State could be the real deal.  Hopefully, within the next few years, there will be plenty of Marquies Gray versus Terrelle Pryor matchups.

- As referenced in this article, junior Lee Campbell has apparently been tagged as the starting middle linebacker for the Gophers versus Northern Illinois.  He was a first team all-state linebacker in Florida for his 2005 high school senior season.

    As a redshirt Freshman, Adam Weber took the reins as the Gopher quarterback running a new spread offense.  Adam Weber came to the University of Minnesota from Mounds View High School in Arden Hills, Minnesota.  For many years now, Mounds View has run an option offense that requires an athletic quarterback who is able to pass on the move.  While different from the spread offense, Mounds View’s option offense prepared Weber for passing out of the pocket and rushing when needed. 

For Big Ten quarterbacks with 100 or more pass attempts, the 2007 rankings sorted by quarterback rating stack up as follows (QB rating does not take into account rushing stats):

While he only ranked number 9 out of 12, these statistics are deceiving as to his actual performance and his projections for the future.  First, the spread offense is complicated.  Weber was a redshirt Freshman running a new offense with no prior Big Ten experience.  Second, his only Senior receiver was Ernie Wheelwright, and his top receiver Eric Decker was only a Sophomore.  Third, the Gopher defense gave up 36.7 points per game and pressured the offense to take chances on big plays.

The quarterback with the top rating in the Big Ten was Ohio State’s Todd Boeckman, who didn’t start until his Junior year.  Indiana’s Sophomore quarterback Kellen Lewis was the second best, and is similar to Weber in that he frequently passes out of the pocket and will run the ball.  Let’s compare Lewis’s freshman year to Weber’s:

When comparing the two players at the same stage of experience, Weber has Lewis beaten in every statistic but TD to Interception rate.  If his accuracy in horseshoes is a good indicator, the interceptions should decrease as he learns the spread offense and has more experienced receivers to target.  At 6′3 220 lbs Weber also has good height and size for a Big Ten quarterback.  So far, Weber has demonstrated durability by avoiding injury despite rushing for 617 yards.

When the factors of age, experience with the system, and his supporting cast are taken into account, marked improvement should be expected from Adam Weber in 2008.  He’ll have a few new offensive linemen due to graduations, but his protection should remain similar to 2007.  Expect the interceptions to go down and the completion rate to go up.  If Adam Weber continues to develop and avoid injury, he should finish in the top 4 for Big Ten quarterbacks as a Sophomore.  2009 should be interesting with an experienced Weber, a versatile David Pittman, and the heralded recruit Marquies Gray competing for the starting job in the new stadium.