Buck Bravo

When navigating the blogosphere for stories about Big Ten football teams, you will shortly discover that teams such as Michigan and Ohio State have many more blogs following their programs.  Certain teams have disproportionately greater internet exposure.  So, is there any correlation between the number of blogs that follow a college football team and that team’s recruiting class rank?  Let’s find out.  

In order to simplify the process, only the blogs that are in the Big Ten Bloggers Network and cover football were included in the analysis.  Team blog rankings were determined using total Google Page Rank.  Google developed Page Rank in order to measure the importance of a website.  While Page Rank can be inaccurate at times, it is the best measurement that is currently available.  For example, BuckBravo.com has a Google Page Rank of three.  Three is a decent rating, but some Big Ten Bloggers still do not consider BuckBravo.com worthy of a link on their page.  

Sites marked with an asterisk recently changed their web addresses, and therefore old web address Page Ranks were used for the analysis:

There is definitely an interesting correlation between number of Big Ten Blogger Blogs and 2009 recruiting class rankings.  Remember, Google Page Rank is an imperfect science.  Blogs such as Michigan’s MGOBLOG and Iowa’s Black Heart Gold Pants only have Page Ranks of three while I am certain that their daily traffic would warrant higher rankings.  Also, Wisconsin’s blog Bucky’s 5th Quarter is brand new and hasn’t had enough time to be ranked.  Despite a few irregularities, the numbers and Page Rankings of Big Ten Bloggers’ blogs are generally indicative of what level of talent each team recruited in 2009.  Here’s a list of the blogs from the analysis and their Google Page Rankings:

Illinois

Hail to the Orange* 4

Indiana

The Hoosier Report 4

Iowa

Black Heart Gold Pants 3

Michigan

Maize & Blue Nation 4

Maize n Brew 4

MGOBLOG 3

Michigan Sports Center 3

MVictors 3

Varsity Blue 3

Michigan State

The Enlightened Spartan 3

Ground Zero East Lansing 4

Sparty MSU 4

Minnesota

Buck Bravo 3

The Daily Gopher 4

Golden Gopher Football Blog 3

Northwestern

Lake the Posts 4

Ohio State

Around the Oval 5

Buckeye Commentary 3

Buckeyes Daily 1

Eleven Warriors 4

Men of the Scarlet and Gray 3

Our Honor Defend 4

The Buckeye Battle Cry 4

The Buckeye Blog 2

Penn State

Black Shoe Diaries 3

There is No Name on My Jersey 4

Happy Hour Valley 4

Nittany White Out 3

The Nittany Line 4

Zombie Nation 4

Purdue

Boiled Sports 2

Hammer and Rails* 4

Wisconsin

Bucky’s 5th Quarter 0

Every February, college football news services release sensational reports about recruiting classes.  Is a great recruiting class truly sensational, or is it just sensationalism?  Teams that perennially reel in five and four star recruits such as USC, Florida, and Texas always seem to be in the hunt for the national championship.  But then there is Notre Dame, who despite fielding a team of blue chip talent has been mediocre the last few years.  Also, teams like Utah and Boise State will occasionally slip into BCS bowl games.  Let’s take a look at how Big Ten teams have finished the season with respect to the five recruiting classes that have contributed to the team that they fielded.  The rankings used for this analysis are simply Rivals’ Big Ten recruiting class rankings, from 1 to 11 for each respective year.  Teams that finished better than three positions above their five year recruiting rank average are highlighted in green.  Teams that were worse than three positions below their five year recruiting rank average are highlighted in red.  Here’s how 2008 panned out:

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In 2008, 9 of the 11 teams in the Big Ten finished the regular season within three spots of their average recruiting class.  Michigan, who had an abysmal season, was the only team to fall greater than three spots in the standings from what their average recruiting class would predict.  Northwestern’s surprising season also outperformed recruiting class predictions.

For 2007:

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In 2007, not a single team in the Big Ten either surpassed or fell short of three standing positions from their average recruiting class rank.  Illinois’ 2nd place fairy tale and Minnesota’s last place nightmare were both within three positions of what the recruiting class averages would predict.

As for 2006:

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2006 had four teams that were outside of average recruiting class expectations.  Michigan State and Illinois finished at the bottom of the Big Ten, despite recruiting classes that should have placed them in the middle of the pack.  Indiana barely outperformed expectations, and Wisconsin finished second despite an average recruiting class smack dab in the middle of the Big Ten.

For the last three seasons (2006-2008), Big Ten teams have finished within three positions in the standings from their average recruiting class ranking  82% of the time.  Not a single team won the Big Ten that had an average recruiting class worse than 3.6.  If these statistics have a large enough sample size to be accurate, Big Ten fans can expect their favorite team to finish within three spots of the following predicted standings in 2009:

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