Buck Bravo

The 2009 Big Ten class rankings for Rivals, Scout, and ESPN have been discussed and analyzed by many.  What has been frequently overlooked is the average quality of incoming classes.  Class rankings typically weigh both quantity and quality of recruits.  Let’s take a look at just the average quality of the incoming classes.

Rivals uses two different scores for rating players.  First, let’s take a look at the average number of stars that have been awarded to recruits:

Here’s a graph depicting the same data:

Notice that the Big Ten teams are generally divided into three tiers.  The first tier of Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State are significantly higher than other teams yet progressively decrease sharply.  The second tiers of Illinois through Penn State are rather close in average quality.  The third tier, Indiana through Iowa, drops off sharply and teams progressively worsen from one to the next.

Let’s take a look at the Rivals Rating average quality.  Rivals Rating is a more detailed score given to recruits that in theory is more accurate than stars:

Here’s a graph for Rivals Rating averages:

Once again, there are three distinct tiers.  However, the more detailed ratings has pushed Minnesota to the bottom of the top tier and rearranged a few of the other rankings.

Scout.com uses a star system to rate recruits, and for the 2009 Big Ten classes the average star ratings for recruiting classes are as follows:

Here’s a graph for the average Scout stars:

Just as with both rating methods for Rivals, average quality using Scout stars yields three tiers for Big Ten teams.  Ohio State and Michigan still claim the top two spots, but Penn State has taken the third spot.  Minnesota through Wisconsin are very close to each other in the second tier.  Indiana through Iowa have established a fairly consistent bottom in the third tier.

ESPN rates players on a numerical scale that ranges from about 40 to 100.  Note that ESPN does not assign a rating to JUCO transfers, which does affect the accuracy of the averages.  Here’s the average 2009 Big Ten recruiting class quality using ESPN ratings:

Here’s a graph of the same ESPN rating averages:

ESPN’s average ratings appear to follow a rather consistent linear regression.  Ohio State and Michigan are still head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten.  Just breaking the Big Ten into thirds in order to form tiers, Minnesota would be borderline first/second tier of the Big Ten.

Having looked at the averages for these different rating systems, Minnesota appears to have one of the better classes in the Big Ten.  However Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State clearly have much better average ratings for their classes across the board.  A few years ago Minnesota was an annual cellar dweller when the Big Ten class rankings were released.  Keeping company with Illinois, Wisconsin, and Penn State in the recruiting battle should be encouraging for Gopher fans.  With a strong 2008 class and a solid 2009 class, if such recruiting efforts continue Minnesota should be fielding a team with upper level Big Ten physical talent within a few more years.

Check back later this week for a breakdown of historical Big Ten recruiting class rankings and how those classes have predicted yearly performance.