The battle for the little brown jug is set to commence this Saturday amongst a “Solid Gold Saturday” crowd.  One team enters the matchup 7-2, while the other is at 2-7.  Who would have thought that the Gophers would have won five more games than Michigan nine games into this season? 

There has been speculation that new Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez, while transitioning the Wolverines to the spread offense, is undergoing a transitional rebuilding year similar to what Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster experienced in 2007.  There are similarities.  Both teams are moving to the spread after having been built for a power running game.  Minnesota had a 1-11 record in 2007 and Michigan enters the game at 2-7.  However, those two points are where the similarities end.

In 2007, Tim Brewster’s Gophers lost six games by a touchdown or less.  There had been a multi-year drought of incoming talent to the program.  The players on both the offense and the defense had been rated no higher than three stars by Rivals.com coming out of high school.  Minnesota’s 2008 turnaround, while due to several factors, is primarily due to an influx of talent on the defensive side of the ball.

While Michigan may not have the level of blue chip talent that they’ve had in the past, they still have plenty of talented athletes.  The following chart compares the experience and Rivals.com star ratings of the primary contributors of the Michigan and Minnesota defenses for 2008:

This year, the average defensive player for both Michigan and Minnesota is a junior…BUT…Michigan averages 3.9 Rivals stars versus 2.5 for Minnesota.  As for the 2008 offenses:

The average offensive player for both teams is a sophomore…BUT…Michigan averages 3.8 stars per player while Minnesota is at 2.4.

The bottom line?  Tim Brewster’s Gophers are 7-2 with considerably less highly rated players than Rich Rodriguez’s 2-7 Wolverines.  With six games lost by a touchdown or less in 2007, what would Tim Brewster’s first year record have been if he had Michigan’s level of talent?  For that matter, would the Gophers have lost to Northwestern or Ohio State in 2008 if the average player on the defense had a Rivals star rating equivalent to Tramaine Brock and Traye Simmons?

What does this all mean?  Two things.  First, recruit star ratings can predict the statistical probability of a player’s potential, but many other factors including maturity, future coaching, future training, and attitude are not taken into account when a player is rated.  Second, if Rich Rodriguez can pull all of Michigan’s talent together the Gophers could be in for a formidable foe this weekend.