Predictions and previews for the upcoming game between the Gophers and the Illini will soon be available at many different blogs, newspapers, and websites.  This article will not cover the formidable talent of Illinois quarterback Juice Williams, the dangerous passing duo of Adam Weber to Eric Decker, or the similarities of the Tim Brewster and the Ron Zook rebuilding strategies.  Instead, this article will attempt to compare both teams in a fair, unbiased, and unemotional manner.  How is that possible?  Let’s try something new and different…comparing team statistics.  Sound like fun?  Why not give it a try? 

Let’s take a look at the strength of the opponents that both Minnesota and Illinois have faced.  Rankings are from the CBSsports.com Top 120 rankings updated on Tuesday.  Neither Eastern Illinois or Montana State were in the top 120, so both were assigned a rank of 121:

Illinois has faced a tougher schedule based upon both the average and the median of opponent rankings.  Minnesota’s most highly rated victory was against 75th ranked Indiana, while Illinois’ was against 53rd ranked Michigan.  Illinois was also in a week 1 shootout with 3rd ranked Missouri, losing by just 10 points in a game that featured 94 points scored.  With the stronger portfolio of wins, a victory versus a more highly rated team, and a close game with a top 5 team it is fair to surmise that Illinois has a slight advantage.  Advantage Illinois.

Now for an offensive comparison.  Both teams have productive spread offenses, as can be viewed in the following table:

* Illinois statistics are prorated to match the Gophers’ 6 games.

Illinois has a clear advantage for rushing yardage.  Interestingly, Minnesota has committed nearly half as many turnovers on offense.  Total passing yardage only differs by 42 yards, which is too close to declare a definitive difference.  With superior rushing yardage and an extra five points per game, Illinois has stronger numbers.  Offensive advantage Illinois.

Minnesota defensive coordinator Ted Roof has the Gopher defense playing fundamentally sound, aggressive, flat-out nasty defense.  How does the new look Gopher defense stack up against Illinois?:

* Illinois statistics are prorated to match the Gophers’ 6 games.

Minnesota has a clear lead in defending the run, while Illinois has a slight lead in defensing the pass.  Minnesota has forced more turnovers, and has allowed significantly fewer points per game with 18.5 versus 29.6 for Illinois.  Defensive advantage Minnesota.

CBSsports.com’s Top 120 ranks Minnesota 33rd and Illinois 35th.  Looking at statistics for strength of schedule, offense and defense Illinois looks better than Minnesota in two of the three categories.  Also, the offensive and defensive statistics are likely skewed since Illinois faced more difficult opponents.  Throw in home field advantage, and the Gophers are definitely the underdogs in this matchup. 

Based solely upon available statistics, Illinois is the favorite.  That shouldn’t suprise anyone.  Besides an improved Gopher defense, there is one other wild card statistic that could give the Gophers hope.  The Gophers have a turnover margin of + 10 while the Illini are only + 1.  What does that mean?  The Illini are far more likely to throw an interception or fumble away possession than the Gophers.  If Juice Williams could just throw a few interceptions or if the Gophers could recover a few fumbles…anything could happen.