Buck Bravo

Minnesota had a gut-wrenching last-second loss to them just a few months ago, but Northwestern has still become my second-favorite Big Ten team. Why? Despite an overtime loss to Missouri in the Alamo Bowl, Northwestern has overcome challenging obstacles to build a successful football program that plays smart football.

First, what obstacles am I referring to that Northwestern has overcome?:

1. Admission Standards: Based upon research including this 2005 article, Northwestern likely has the most rigorous admission standards in the entire Big Ten.

2. Poorly Rated Recruiting Classes: Likely related to having high admission standards, Northwestern rarely lands blue chip recruits. Last year they rated 10th in the Big Ten, and previous years weren’t much better. In order to compete at a high level, they must be doing a phenomenal job of training and developing the players that they have.

3. Head Coaching Change: Just over two years ago, Northwestern’s head coach Randy Walker suddenly and tragically passed away at the age of 52. Walker’s replacement, 34 year old Pat Fitzgerald, brought the Wildcats to the Alamo Bowl just two years later. Many of those players were Walker’s recruits.

Northwestern fans may consider the loss at the Alamo Bowl to be a “painfully crushing” loss, but I’d like to think that 2008 was a great season for Northwestern. What impressed me the most?:

1. Crisp, precise execution on offense.

2. Solid defensive schemes and positioning despite matching up against superior athletes.

3. “Outsmarting” the opposition with planned deception, misdirection, and play calling.

4. Finishing the season 9-4 despite the fact that most analysts expected a losing record.

5. Ability to run a no-huddle and hurry-up offense flawlessly.

6. Solid, fundamental football.

The Alamo Bowl was difficult to watch. “Holding” penalties seemed to go against Northwestern at inopportune times. Missouri’s players were much bigger and faster than Northwestern’s. ESPN was obsessed with Chase Daniels, and led viewers to believe that he was the only player with relatives in the stands. Even this AP article focuses upon how great Chase Daniels played despite three interceptions. In spite of the biased coverage, Northwestern defied expectations and took a talented Missouri team to overtime.

Maybe it’s a desire to root for the underdog, maybe it’s an appreciation for a team with obstacles that others don’t have, and maybe it’s an appreciation for smart football, but I can’t help but like Northwestern Football.

Here’s a video previewing the Insight Bowl from CBSSports.com:

The following video features Adam Weber discussing the Insight Bowl on the Big Ten Network:

The Insight Bowl on New Year’s Eve offers an interesting matchup between Kansas and Minnesota. Both teams enter the game with a record of 7-5, but Kansas is the consensus favorite to win. According to Vegas.com, Kansas is favored by 9-9.5 points and the game should be an offensive showdown with 58 total points expected in the game. While both teams had a record of 7-5, Kansas had a much more difficult schedule. In the following table, team rankings are from the CBSSports.com top 120 poll:

Kansas lost to 50th ranked South Florida by three points, and defeated every team ranked lower than 50th. Kansas lost to every team ranked higher than South Florida except 25th ranked Missouri, who they defeated by three points.

Minnesota’s win versus 69th ranked Illinois ended up being their strongest victory. Close games included a 3 point loss to 41st ranked Wisconsin and a last-play loss to 22nd ranked Northwestern. Minnesota also lost to 91st ranked Michigan by 23 points.

So how will Kansas and Minnesota match up?

The two factors that will likely determine the outcome of the game are 1) Success of the Kansas passing game, and 2) Minnesota’s ability to score. Here’s a table comparing rankings of the Kansas offense versus the Minnesota defense:

The Minnesota run defense has a slight advantage versus the Kansas rushing game. However, Kansas has a decisive advantage with their high octane passing attack. Kansas is 9th in the nation for receiving yards and 15th in the nation for receiving touchdowns. If the Kansas offense has success passing that these rankings would indicate, the Gophers won’t have a chance. The wild card in the above chart is Minnesota’s advantage in forcing turnovers versus Kansas’ offensive ranking in giving away the football. Let’s compare the Minnesota offense to the Kansas defense:

Minnesota has a slight advantage passing the ball versus the Kansas defense, but Kansas should be able to limit Minnesota’s rushing game. Minnesota had some key injuries to Eric Decker and the offensive line late in the season that likely account for poor offensive performance versus Michigan and Iowa. If the last month has allowed Minnesota to recover from injuries and show up at full strength, they should be able to score against Kansas.

The strong passing game of Kansas versus the Minnesota defense justifies Kansas’ status as the favorite for the game. In order for Minnesota to win, they will have to accomplish the following tasks: 1) Shut down the Kansas running game, forcing them to pass. 2) Make a few key interceptions and/or fumble recoveries on defense. 3) Field an offense that can perform similar to earlier in the season.

The Insight Bowl is not a meaningless game for Minnesota. Finishing the season with a win versus five straight losses would contribute to a positive start to the 2009 season. For a team that finished 1-11 last year, an 8-5 record with a win versus a Big 12 team would look good in the record books.

College football recruits and fans frequently reiterate the same objection to football played outdoors in Minnesota: “I hear that it’s cold up there.” The Big Ten in general suffers from a reputation of having unreasonably cold weather, and many analysts have credited weather as a factor in the rise of the SEC. Minnesota in particular has suffered from this stereotype, with even other Big Ten teams claiming that Minnesota has the worst weather in the conference. Let’s find out if perceptions are indeed reality.

In a recent interview at GopherHole.com, a recruit responded to a question about what other schools are saying to negatively recruit against Minnesota: “Yeah, they tell me it gets very cold in Minnesota…” Instead of addressing the issue with anecdotal evidence and personal experience, let’s take a look at average temperatures for Big Ten schools from April (Spring practice) through November (the completion of the regular season). Miami has been added to the graph as a point of reference:

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As you can see, the Big Ten is definitely cooler than Miami during from Spring practice through the regular season. However, there is little disparity amongst Big Ten schools. When Iowa or Ohio State fans refer to Minnesota as “the frozen tundra,’ their perceptions are not based in reality. Perhaps subzero temperatures in northern Minnesota that often make national news (a five hour drive north from Minneapolis towards Canada) are creating an unfair stereotype for Minnesota. In fact, there are no Big Ten schools with average temperatures below freezing during the football season.

Having reviewed temperatures, what about the reputation that Minnesota is “Minne-snow-ta”? Well, let’s look at the average snowfall of Big Ten schools. I’ve added Buffalo, New York as a point of reference since it is an NFL city and has a great deal of snowfall:

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Once again, schools in the Big Ten are not far apart with regards to snowfall. In fact, no Big Ten schools have snowfall anywhere near that of Buffalo. Compared to other Big Ten schools, Minnesota not only has similar snowfall but in fact has less average mid-winter snowfall than Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. Amongst Big Ten schools, “Minne-snow-ta” is much more a myth than a reality.

Recruits looking to only play in warm weather venues may be better suited to southern conferences. Recruits looking to prepare for NFL conditions may be better suited to the Big Ten. I’ve never heard of an NFL player having a contract that stipulated “said player will only suit up in full pads and participate in sanctioned games if the temperature is above 55 degrees Fahrenheit.” The Big Ten will have a fair number of chilly games late in the season, but very few of those games will actually drop below freezing.

Negative recruiting that creates perceptions Minnesota is drastically colder than other Big Ten teams is not supported by evidence. In reality, football season weather at Big Ten schools is similar whether it be at Ohio State, Michigan, or Minnesota. Next time fans or representatives of other Big Ten schools claim that Minnesota is a land of unbearable cold and suffocating snowfall, their statements can be refuted with confidence since the facts aren’t on their side.

Brent Singleton from Plantation, Florida’s American Heritage High School has committed to Minnesota. Singleton is rated as a three star prospect by both Rivals.com and Scout.com, and has a thorough review over at ESPN. At 6′0, 194 pounds with a 4.58 forty yard dash time Singleton should have all of the tools to be an effective Division 1 linebacker once he adds some weight. According to ESPN he “Appears to still have another few inches of growth left and at least 25-pounds of bulk on his lean frame when he hits a college weight-training program.” Minnesota has been thin at the linebacker position, and Singleton should be a welcomed addition to the team. The following video showcases Singleton’s speed, solid tackling skills, and tenacity on the gridiron:

As the 2009 recruiting class fills out there will likely be a few more commitments to come. The following videos are of players that still list Minnesota as a school of interest and who have not previously been featured on this website.

Andru Stewart is another College of the Sequoias JUCO with impressive video and interest in Minnesota. With a 4.5 forty yard dash time and a 3.5 GPA, Stewart has the potential to shine both on the gridiron and in the classroom. The second play from scrimmage in the following video, about 15 seconds from the start, is well worth the time to watch. Stewart definitely isn’t afraid of contact:

Nat Berhe is a defensive back from Colton, California with listed offers from Minnesota, New Mexico, and San Diego State. Berhe is listed at 5′11, 160 pounds, but in the following video plays like he’s about 190 pounds. Berhe appears to have good tackling and coverage skills:

Dwayne Difton is a 6′1 four star receiver from Fort Lauderdale, Florida with a 4.59 forty time. Difton appears to have route running skills and an ability to catch the football with “his hands instead of his body” that many high school players haven’t developed. Difton also has listed offers from Boston College, UCONN, California, and Syracuse to name a few:

According to Rivals, Giavanni Ruffin of College of the Sequoias is listed as having high interest in East Carolina with a visit on January 10th. Nevertheless, he is still uncommitted and has Minnesota listed as a school of interest. At 6′1, 210 pounds with a 4.4 forty yard dash he could end up being underrated at three stars:

There’s already a running back in Minnesota who had similar size to Ruffin at 6′2, 210 pounds with a 4.4 forty yard dash while being recruited in Palestine, Texas. Here’s what high school footage of a true five star recruit looks like:

Bryant Allen committed to be a Gopher yesterday. If his listed 40 yard dash time of 4.3 is accurate, Allen should have an amazing future on the gridiron for the Golden Gophers. Not only is Allen a talented football player, but he’s also a three star recruit for basketball. As a general guideline, athletes who can play two Division 1 sports are usually exceptionally gifted: Bo Jackson, Julius Peppers, Charlie Ward, Eric Decker, etc. Allen is already listed as a commitment for Tubby Smith’s basketball program. Based upon video and the articles I’ve read, he should have a realistic opportunity to see playing time at both TCF Bank Stadium and The Barn.

Bryant Allen of Maplewood, Missouri is a strong three star recruit currently considering Minnesota. Why a “strong” three star recruit? With a Rivals rating of 5.7, Allen barely missed the cutoff of 5.8 for a four star rating. He is also rated highly at ESPN with a cumulative score of 79. ESPN notes “Allen may be one of the more dynamic skill players in this class no one is talking about. This kid can hurt you as a runner, pass catcher and even as a quarterback.”

Apparently, Allen has narrowed his choices down to either Minnesota or Kansas. Let the rivalry for the Insight Bowl start now. Allen was interviewed by GopherHole.com back in November. Allen’s skill set is well suited to the Minnesota style of play as noted by ESPN: “…we feel Allen is a future weapon if he lands in an open spread offense and may be one of the more underrated “space players” in this class. Skills as a future return specialist only add to his upside.”

Allen’s video footage highlights his skills and playmaking abilities:

While the final standings for Big Ten teams are the only statistics that matter in the history books, determining whether a team’s season was a success or a failure is far more challenging to quantitatively ascertain. For example, a 9-3 record is considered a successful conclusion to a season for Northwestern but not USC.

Using relational databases for a future website that is still under development, performance report scores were generated that measure season results weighted for factors such as experience and the talent levels of rosters. To keep it simple, the rankings intend to illustrate how well a team performed relative to statistical expectations on a scale of -100 (bad) to 100 (good).

These calculations are from a beta version of an application, so there are some factors that haven’t been taken into account. For example, Michigan is penalized for having a losing season with one of the Big Ten’s most talented rosters, but the effects of having implemented a new offensive scheme that doesn’t suit player strengths is not considered. Factors such as strength of schedule, talent/experience of roster, and poll rankings are all factored into the results. Despite a few shortcomings, the results are very interesting. Any score above zero indicates that a team exceeded statistical expectations:

Northwestern was not expected to have a successful season, let alone earn a trip to the Outback Bowl. It’s no surprise that the Northwestern football program exceeded statistical expectations to a greater extent than any other team in the Big Ten. In fact, the beta application predicted Northwestern to finish tenth in the Big Ten. Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin all scored close to zero, which indicates that they ended up having seasons on par with calculated talent and experience levels.

The goal in developing this particular calculation is to eventually yield results that fit a normal distribution curve and can be used to rate gameday coaching performance over the course of a season. While these results are only for one conference over one season, they look interesting when superimposed on a normal distribution curve (This is not the actual distribution curve, but an estimation to explain the concept):

Please don’t take these calculations too seriously. They’re just the unofficial outcome of having some fun with relational databases. Even though these results are incomplete and likely need extensive adjustments, hopefully you had a thought-provoking read.

According to an update at CaringBridge.com, Sam Maresh has been cleared to play football. Maresh is an amazing athlete who should add immediate depth to the Gopher defense. Maresh’s clearance to play football also indicates that his surgery was a resounding success, which is the most important part of this news. The following video has been posted in the past, but is worth watching for those who have not viewed it: