Buck Bravo

Two first half turnovers may have prevented the Gophers from keeping the game competitive versus the Buckeyes.  Ohio State scored ten points off of Adam Weber’s interception and Jack Simmons’ fumble.  If the officials had blown the whistle when Simmons’ forward progress was stopped, the Gophers may have been able to keep the score much closer.

Turnovers aside, the difference between the Gophers and the Buckeyes was much more than the final score of 34-21.  From the opening drive of the game to the final whistle, the disparity of athletic ability between the two teams was obvious.  Terrelle Pryor is an athletic enigma, and Chris “Beanie” Wells was like a battering ram up against a bamboo gate.  Brian Robiskie introduced the Gopher defensive backs to the NFL level of play. 

The Gophers covered the 18 point spread, which should be considered a victory in Tim Brewster’s rebuilding process.  If the Gophers are to compete with the Buckeyes in future years, the recent influx of talent that started with the 2008 recruiting class needs to continue.  Let’s take a look at the Rivals.com star ratings for the Minnesota and Ohio State classes of 2004-2008.  I’ve included 2004 to account for seniors who were redshirted their freshman year:

The average star rating for Minnesota recruits during this time period was 2.59 while the average for Ohio State was 3.62.  Two of the Ohio State five star recruits happen to be Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells.  Seven of the nine four star Gopher recruits are from the newly arrived 2008 class.  The 2008 class had an average Rivals star rating of 3.07.  Minnesota is not yet recruiting at the level of Ohio State, but after 2008 is headed in the right direction.

Ohio State Buckeye blogs have some interesting comments regarding Saturday:

- Men of the Scarlet and Gray may have written a descriptive term for the Gophers that best sums up OSU fan sentiment on the chat boards…”slump-buster“: 

“Minnesota is a great team to open against. The Buckeyes need a slump-buster, something to get them out of their current funk.”

- From the blog Buckeyes Daily:

“Look for the Buckeyes to show their whole hand this week. Minnesota is too good, and this is too far into this season to hold anything back in terms of play calling. Look for Minnesota to worry Buckeyes fans early, before the Buckeyes superior talent on the offensive and defensive line takes over.

OSU 35 – MINNESOTA 14″

- Both OSU blogs Eleven Warriors and Our Honor Defend chose the same picture for their preview of the game.  Coincidence?

- OSU blog Eleven Warriors predicts a Buckeye victory of 38 - 13:

“Maybe in another year where they aren’t facing Pryor, a refurbished Beanie and a defense hungry to prove doubters wrong could Tim Brewster get that landmark win he so sorely needs. Just not this Saturday.”

 - From Our Honor Defend:

“Despite close calls against Northern Illinois and Montana State, the Gopher players have every right to be optimistic about their prospects coming into Columbus.  This is certainly not the same Gopher team whose putridness was graciously overshadowed by the uncharacteristic woefulness of the Irish.”  

“Think of the possibilities.  How is Minnesota going to defend two explosive players in the same backfield?  Option plays could be deadly for the Gophers.” 

- OSU’s Buckeye Commentary notes that the return of Beanie Wells gave OSU a 5 point boost in the point spread.

- The Buckeye Blog gives the Gophers more credit than the 17.5 point spread, but understandably still favors the Buckeyes.

- Around the Oval doesn’t have a prediction up just yet, but check back for an open thread of comments on Saturday.

Ohio media also had a few interesting stories:

- You can check out an interview with Adam Weber at The Columbus Dispatch by clicking here.

- Also at the Columbus Dispatch, 56% of respondents to an online poll predict that OSU will win by 10-21 points.  Only 5% favor the Gophers.

- According to nbc4i in Columbus, Jim Tressel has been coaching OSU’s offensive line this week.

There are a few others interested in the OSU/Minnesota game:

- Adam Rittenberg of ESPN’s Big Ten Blog predicts a 35-17 OSU victory:

“I haven’t lost faith in Minnesota, but the timing just isn’t right for an upset. And unlike previous Gophers opponents, Ohio State will actually bother to cover star wide receiver Eric Decker with All-America cornerback Malcolm Jenkins.”

- Michigan blogger Maize & Blue Nation comments:

“And judging by how awful tOSU has looked in the past 3 weeks, this blogger would not be surprised to see Minnesota take down the Buckeyes in Columbus this weekend. But, I’ll take tOSU in this game because even I am still not convinced that tOSU is as bad as they’ve shown recently.”

“So I’ll stick with my healthy skepticism looking ahead to tomorrow… if the Gophers can play tough on the road in a very difficult test in a tough environment, and keep this game close, I’ll feel a lot better about answering some of those questions.”

- Goldy keeps it short and sweet by just stating “The Gophers are going to beat the Buckeyes.”

- Kent Youngblood of the Star Tribune discusses the key matchup of Eric Decker versus OSU defensive back Malcolm Jenkins.

I’ve already posted my predictions and observations about tomorrow’s game that you can review by clicking here.

In my prior post, I promised to review Ohio State media and blogs prior to Saturday’s matchup.  I’ll make that post before Saturday.  For now, let’s briefly review overall team offense and defense statistics for Big Ten teams heading into conference play. 

Statistical comparisons of Big Ten teams are not entirely fair since non-conference schedules were of different difficulty levels.  While the Gophers were playing Montana State, Ohio State was playing USC.  Regardless of the strength of schedules, there are some interesting statistical observations to be made amongst Big Ten teams.

Let’s start with the offenses:

* Statistics for teams that have only played three games have been prorated

The Gophers are tied for second in the Big Ten with 36.3 points per game.  The Gophers have solid passing numbers with 967 yards placing them fourth in the conference.  The running game is eighth in the conference.  Hopefully the running game will continue to improve as Deleon Eskridge and Shady Salamon continue to pick up where Duane Bennett left off.

And now for the defense:

Despite last week’s stellar performance, the Gophers are seventh in the conference for total points allowed.  Middle of the pack performance in the Big Ten is definitely an improvement from last year.  Tying for first place with eight interceptions is likely not a fluke, as the revamped secondary appears to be the real deal.  With a new coordinator and several new and young players, expect the defense to continue to improve over the course of the year.

Look for a new post tomorrow reviewing Ohio State blog and media predictions.

The Ohio State University is nicknamed after Aesculus glabra, which is better known as the Ohio buckeye tree.  Ohio State has several stars and future NFL players on their roster, but one star in particular is shining brighter than the others in Columbus.  This Saturday, the Gophers will be facing a quarterback who, unlike a tree, will not remain planted in his designated zone.  If the Golden Gophers are to have a chance at toppling the mighty Buckeyes, they must first contain Terrelle Pryor.

Terrelle Pryor was the consensus top high school recruit in America for 2008.  He is a dual-threat quarterback with blazing speed and a cannon for an arm.  I’d go into more detail regarding his skills, but the following video pretty much sums it up:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFSn9yuH1v4&feature=related]

In order to contain Terrelle Pryor, the Gophers need to take advantage of his inexperience.  The key to limiting Pryor will be preventing him from scrambling and forcing him to pass to secondary and tertiary receivers.  As a true freshman, the Ohio State gameplan for Pryor will likely be for him to both scramble and hit his primary receiving options.  If he is forced to look beyond his primary targets, his inexperience may render him vulnerable.  It is not unreasonable to predict that if Terrelle Pryor is under pressure he could be prone to mistakes.

As I mentioned earlier, there are several stars amongst the men of the scarlet and gray.  The young Gopher squad must have all of those stars in alignment in order to pull off an upset.  All American Minnesota native James Laurinaitis could be starting in the NFL as a linebacker, but instead decided to play his senior year for the Buckeyes.  Along with a defense that is two-deep with blue chip recruits, he will present a formidable challenge to Adam Weber and the Gopher offense.  Brian Robiskie is one of the top wide receivers in the nation, and will test the revamped Gopher defense.  Ohio State star running back Chris “Beanie” Wells has been injured, but if he plays will test the Minnesota run defense with his size and speed.

Saturday will be a progress test for the Gophers.  The Minnesota offense will likely score between 14 and 24 points, but needs a stellar performance from the defense to keep the game competitive.  The Aesculus gabra tree is supposedly nicknamed the buckeye due to seeds that resemble the eyes of a white-tailed deer “buck“.  If the Gophers can prevent Terrelle Pryor from running like a deer through Ohio Stadium, they will have aligned the first of several stars that could result in a major turning point for the Gopher Football program.  Gopher Nation should hope for a deer in headlights.

Have no delusions, the Gophers are definitely the underdogs in this matchup.  However, compared to last year they now have the talent to stay in the game.  An upset would require a defensive scheme that contains Pryor and limits the running game, a solid offensive performance, and flawless special teams play.  That’s quite a bit to ask, but definitely not impossible.  Check back later this week as I review previews from Ohio State media and blogs.

The Gopher Nation has been waiting for a convincing victory for over a year.  Last year, Florida Atlantic defeated the Gophers 42-39.  Not this year.  Saturday’s win over Florida Atlantic by a score of 37-3 was long overdue.  The Gophers had a solid offensive performance, but more importantly exhibited improvement on defense. 

The Gopher defense held the Owls to 3 points, 175 yards passing and 101 yards rushing.  When was the last time that the Gophers had four interceptions in a game?  As noted in this Big Ten Network article, it was a “pick party.”  The revamped Gopher secondary finally appears comfortable working together.  In the past, it seemed as if the Gophers would wait for a pass to be caught and then react.  With the added speed of new players, pass plays are being broken up before a completion is made. 

As I predicted after the first two games of the season, Tramaine Brock continues to be make an impact on both pass and run defense.  Traye Simmons had his second interception of the year and broke up several pass plays that may have been completed last season.  Marcus Sherels nearly had a pick on a long bomb from Rusty Smith, and linebacker Simoni Lawrence outran a FAU wide receiver while taking an interception to the house for a touchdown.  This link is to a Star Tribune article about Traye Simmons and Marcus Sherels.

Rusty Smith had a few dropped passes by his FAU receivers, including one that would have been a touchdown.  There is a video of Rusty Smith and other FAU players reacting to the loss at this link.  Adam Weber also gave up his first interception of the year on a pass that he tried to force to Eric Decker in the end zone.  Otherwise, the Gophers look to be an improved football team from last week.  Adam Rittenberg of ESPN sums up the Gophers’ performace in this blog entry:

“A new-look secondary continues to come up with big plays, as Minnesota has eight interceptions and 33 pass deflections this season. The offense continues to roll behind quarterback Adam Weber and wideout Eric Decker, and Minnesota heads into league play with plenty of momentum.”

The Gophers are a young team and should continue to improve throughout the year.  Next week’s challenge versus Ohio State is a story unto itself that I will review on Tuesday.  For now, savor the undefeated record and enjoy this Youtube video of the University of Minnesota Marching Band’s halftime performance:

463 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions passing; 7 forced turnovers on defense.  Those are the robust statistics that Florida Atlantic had in defeating the Gophers 42-39 in 2007.  Will 2008 be a rerun of 2007 or a new episode of Gopher Football?  The Gophers have new defensive coordinator Ted Roof and a revamped defense including three new defensive backs.  The Owls only mustered 292 yards and 10 points versus Texas, and 225 yards with 0 points versus Michigan State.  However, they did have 554 yards and 49 points versus UAB.  Saturday’s game could set the bar as to how much improvement the Gophers have had in a year, and whether they can now be competitive with top tier teams.

Adam Weber has yet to throw an interception in his first three games.  Last year he gave up 4 picks to FAU.  If Weber can maintain his improved passing, the Gophers will have a much better showing this time around.  The Daily Gopher has a great in-depth preview of what to expect during the game.  Some interesting interviews about the Gophers with FAU players including quarterback Rusty Smith are on an FAU blog that can be viewed by clicking here.  My own thoughts are that with an improved defense, an experienced Weber, and home field advantage the Gophers will win this time around.  I’ll predict a score of 38-20.

Interestingly, the gopher is prey for owls in the Midwest ecosystem.  Hopefully Gopher fans won’t have an experience similar to this photo.  The Gophers should remain undefeated and come out of this one looking like this photo.

Good news regarding Sam Maresh.  As I predicted back in July, he is recovering rapidly from cardiovascular surgery and has been cleared to resume training.  Check out this Pioneer Press article for details.

Additionally, let’s be sure to give the recruits visiting this weekend a welcoming reception to the University of Minnesota.  According to Scout.com, visiting recruits will include Frank Crawford, Artice Kellam, Hasan Lipscomb, and Minneapolis’ own Ra’Shede Hageman.

Eric Decker hauled in a Minnesota school record 67 receptions in 2007.  He also racked up 909 yards and 9 touchdowns.  The dangerous passing tandem of freshman quarterback Weber to sophomore receiver Decker was a ray of hope for the Gophers in a down year.  Once again, recruiting services had overlooked rural Minnesota talent as both Rivals and Scout ranked Eric Decker from Cold Spring as a two star recruit in 2005.

Decker is a gifted athlete, and excels at both football and baseball.  Last Spring he was selected by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 39th round of the MLB draft and hit .329 for the Gophers in Division I baseball.  He’s probably a good boxer, but moving forward should practice his jabs on a punching bag  rather than Jack Ikegwuonu’s punching sack.  Kent Youngblood of the Star Tribune wrote this article back in August about Decker’s choice between the NFL and Major League Baseball.

After three games versus non-conference teams, Decker already has 25 receptions for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns.  He has also rushed for 57 yards with a touchdown.  If he can maintain the same rate of production for the rest of the season, he will have 125 receptions for 1328 yards and 12 touchdowns.  Will that happen?  Probably not.  Entering Big Ten play, the Gophers will be facing better defenses.  The projected 125 receptions is troubling.  Decker is a tough player and a great talent, but the Gophers need to have another solid threat emerge at wide receiver.  As a comparison, the most receptions that NFL Hall of Fame member Jerry Rice ever had in a 16 game season was 122.  125 projected receptions in 12 games?  The Gophers need to make sure that Decker doesn’t wear out and sustain an injury.

Expect Eric Decker to be a candidate for the 2008 All-Big Ten team.  Recently Decker stated that he plans on returning in 2009 for his senior year and the first football season in TCF Bank Stadium.  Although a long shot, it would be great to see him play during the opening of the Twins’ new stadium in 2010.  How many athletes get the opportunity to open two new stadiums in their home state?  Meanwhile, enjoy these videos of my favorite two-sport athlete:

This one’s from his Heisman Trophy winning career at Auburn:

- Marion Barber has officially become a superstar in the NFL after Monday night’s performance against the Eagles with 114 yards rushing and two touchdowns.  There’s no question he’s locked down the starting job for America’s team, and there’s no question he’s one of the most exciting running backs in the NFL.  Here’s a commercial featuring a Marion Barber run:

- Clint Brewster transferred from Minnesota after Adam Weber locked up the starting quarterback job.  Clint had a great first game for College of the Sequoias with 284 yards passing, 14 of 21 passes completed, and two touchdowns.  Check out the highlights of that game here.  Hopefully he’ll find a Division 1 program to start at next year.

- Former Gopher tight ends Matt Spaeth (Steelers) and Ben Utecht (Bengals) have caught passes this year in the NFL.

- Laurence Maroney is the starting running back for the Patriots, and hopefully the shoulder injury he sustained this week isn’t serious.

- Wide receiver Logan Payne was playing for the Seahawks, but tore his MCL this week and is out for the season.

- Former 2008 Gopher commits Tim McGee (Memphis Tigers) and Vince Hill (Temple Owls) have yet to see the field.

- Glen Mason is now working for the Big Ten Network, and according to this Star Tribune article is assigned to the Minnesota/Ohio State game while spending the day as an honorary captain for the Buckeyes.

- Last year’s defensive coordinator Everett Withers is now the defensive coordinator for the North Carolina Tarheels, and this past week his defense held Rutgers’ offense to 12 points.

3-0.  At the end of the season, that will be the only relevant statistic from this week.  After an emotional win on the road versus Bowling Green, the youth and inexperience of the Gopher Football team was apparent versus the Montana State Bobcats.  Despite numerous mistakes, Minnesota was still able to walk away with a win.  Perhaps a disappointing win versus Montana State will build character for the Gopher squad.  Here’s a few observations from Saturday:

Youth and Inexperience - The Gophers are one of the youngest teams in Division IA football.  In fact, they have the third fewest seniors of any Division IA team.  I can count ten true freshmen who have seen the field.  Most notable is that the offensive line has started and played a few redshirt freshmen.  Of any position in football besides quarterback, the offensive line benefits most from age and experience.

Defensive Chemistry - I’m able to count eight players who have seen the field on defense who were not wearing maroon and gold last year.  There is undoubtedly an upgrade in talent on the field with the addition of Tramaine Brock, Traye Simmons, Simoni Lawrence, Marcus Sherels and Cedric McKinley among others.  On several of the successful Montana State passing plays, including the first quarter touchdown, there were breakdowns in zone coverage.  The good news is that our defensive players were not beat by better athletes.  They made mistakes in coverage assignments.  It’s important to remember that many of these players have only been working together since August.  As the season progresses and players acclimate themselves to the system and to each other, expect fewer breakdowns in coverage.

Wide Receivers - Eric Decker is having an All American season.  Additional wide receivers need to step up and become threats before entering Big Ten play.  I’m still optimistic that the true freshmen quartet of Brandon Green, Xzavian Brandon, Brodrick Smith and Da’Jon McKnight are learning the complex Gopher spread offense and fine tuning their skills.  Adam Weber will need more options than Eric Decker and Jack Simmons to be successful in the Big Ten.

Deleon Eskridge - Deleon Eskridge had a great game with 114 yards rushing and three touchdowns.  When he was hit, he would continue to move forward.  He made great cuts and has Division I speed.  My previous post analyzed the options for replacing Duane Bennett, and it appears that the answer is Deleon Eskridge.

After last week’s victory at Bowling Green, it was easy to overlook that the Gophers are a young and inexperienced team.  Expect the Gophers to improve as the year progresses, but expect growing pains along the way.  The Golden Gopher Football blog gives a nice gameday recap including a statistical analysis.  Rome wasn’t built in a day.  Here’s a great video recap of the game:

Saturday’s game versus Montana State could be the most important game of the year.  Why?

1. Losing to Montana State would be devastating.  The Gophers are not expected to win versus teams such as Ohio State or even Bowling Green.  Analysts and fans expect the Gophers to defeat Montana State.  If Montana State pulls off a win after losing to Kansas State by a score of 69-10, all of the momentum and excitement that the Gophers built up from the first two weeks of the season will be lost.  Do I think it likely that Montana State will win?  Absolutely not.  However, the Gophers need to make sure that they show up to play.
2. The Gophers have two games left to prepare for the Big Ten.  The Gophers will be facing a tough and determined opponent next week in Florida Atlantic.  Last year Florida Atlantic defeated the Gophers.  This week may be the best chance for the Gophers to fine tune the offense and defense.  Some of the younger players can hopefully gain enough experience to be Big Ten ready.  It is important that the Gophers build a big lead in this game early on.  If second and third string players can see some action in the second half, the Gophers’ depth chart will have game-day experience heading into Big Ten play.  An early lead would allow the starters to remain rested and healthy for Florida Atlantic.
3. The offensive line and running backs can be evaluated.  Last week’s injuries to Jeff Tow-Arnett, Ned Tavale, and Duane Bennett were the only downside of the Bowling Green game.  The Gophers should have an opportunity to test out some different players in order to solidify a young offensive line and evaluate their running backs.

I expect the Gophers to win, and win big.  In my opinion, this is the most important game of the year since it is the only remaining game that the Gophers absolutely MUST win.

On another note, I hope that David Pittman can finally see the field.  I’ve been looking forward to finding out how the Gophers will use him in the spread offense.  Just for kicks, here’s a formation that I’d be thrilled to see the Gophers use.  I left the receivers and running backs off of the diagram since they could be aligned any number of ways.  I call this the “side-by-side shotgun“:

Just to be clear, I have no delusions that the Gophers would ever take anything on this website seriously.  That being said, wouldn’t this be a fun formation to occasionally see them run?  Defenses key on the quarterback’s eyes and body language.  If there were two potential quarterbacks in the play, the level of defensive confusion would be monumental.  Both Weber and Pittman are gifted athletes able to pass, run, and receive the football.  Just imagine the possibilities…