Buck Bravo

While the final standings for Big Ten teams are the only statistics that matter in the history books, determining whether a team’s season was a success or a failure is far more challenging to quantitatively ascertain. For example, a 9-3 record is considered a successful conclusion to a season for Northwestern but not USC.

Using relational databases for a future website that is still under development, performance report scores were generated that measure season results weighted for factors such as experience and the talent levels of rosters. To keep it simple, the rankings intend to illustrate how well a team performed relative to statistical expectations on a scale of -100 (bad) to 100 (good).

These calculations are from a beta version of an application, so there are some factors that haven’t been taken into account. For example, Michigan is penalized for having a losing season with one of the Big Ten’s most talented rosters, but the effects of having implemented a new offensive scheme that doesn’t suit player strengths is not considered. Factors such as strength of schedule, talent/experience of roster, and poll rankings are all factored into the results. Despite a few shortcomings, the results are very interesting. Any score above zero indicates that a team exceeded statistical expectations:

Northwestern was not expected to have a successful season, let alone earn a trip to the Outback Bowl. It’s no surprise that the Northwestern football program exceeded statistical expectations to a greater extent than any other team in the Big Ten. In fact, the beta application predicted Northwestern to finish tenth in the Big Ten. Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin all scored close to zero, which indicates that they ended up having seasons on par with calculated talent and experience levels.

The goal in developing this particular calculation is to eventually yield results that fit a normal distribution curve and can be used to rate gameday coaching performance over the course of a season. While these results are only for one conference over one season, they look interesting when superimposed on a normal distribution curve (This is not the actual distribution curve, but an estimation to explain the concept):

Please don’t take these calculations too seriously. They’re just the unofficial outcome of having some fun with relational databases. Even though these results are incomplete and likely need extensive adjustments, hopefully you had a thought-provoking read.

Eric Decker hauled in a Minnesota school record 67 receptions in 2007.  He also racked up 909 yards and 9 touchdowns.  The dangerous passing tandem of freshman quarterback Weber to sophomore receiver Decker was a ray of hope for the Gophers in a down year.  Once again, recruiting services had overlooked rural Minnesota talent as both Rivals and Scout ranked Eric Decker from Cold Spring as a two star recruit in 2005.

Decker is a gifted athlete, and excels at both football and baseball.  Last Spring he was selected by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 39th round of the MLB draft and hit .329 for the Gophers in Division I baseball.  He’s probably a good boxer, but moving forward should practice his jabs on a punching bag  rather than Jack Ikegwuonu’s punching sack.  Kent Youngblood of the Star Tribune wrote this article back in August about Decker’s choice between the NFL and Major League Baseball.

After three games versus non-conference teams, Decker already has 25 receptions for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns.  He has also rushed for 57 yards with a touchdown.  If he can maintain the same rate of production for the rest of the season, he will have 125 receptions for 1328 yards and 12 touchdowns.  Will that happen?  Probably not.  Entering Big Ten play, the Gophers will be facing better defenses.  The projected 125 receptions is troubling.  Decker is a tough player and a great talent, but the Gophers need to have another solid threat emerge at wide receiver.  As a comparison, the most receptions that NFL Hall of Fame member Jerry Rice ever had in a 16 game season was 122.  125 projected receptions in 12 games?  The Gophers need to make sure that Decker doesn’t wear out and sustain an injury.

Expect Eric Decker to be a candidate for the 2008 All-Big Ten team.  Recently Decker stated that he plans on returning in 2009 for his senior year and the first football season in TCF Bank Stadium.  Although a long shot, it would be great to see him play during the opening of the Twins’ new stadium in 2010.  How many athletes get the opportunity to open two new stadiums in their home state?  Meanwhile, enjoy these videos of my favorite two-sport athlete:

This one’s from his Heisman Trophy winning career at Auburn:

Duane Bennett started off the season with two solid games, and appeared to be well on his way to becoming the next great Gopher running back.  Bennett was quick, he could break tackles, he was a good receiver, and he was a great pass blocker.  Unfortunately, a knee injury suffered in last Saturday’s game versus Bowling Green will sideline him for the rest of the season.

While Bennett will definitely be missed this year, his injury provides an opportunity for three true freshmen.  Junior Jay Thomas is a talented back, but his durability is a question mark after having both of his knees reconstructed.  My prior post on Thomas can be viewed here.  I would not be surprised if either Shady Salamon, Deleon Eskridge, or Kevin Whaley steps up and haves a big season.  Here’s some statistics and analyses on the three freshmen running backs:

Shady Salamon -Salamon is currently the favorite to become the featured running back for the Gophers.  Last year at this time he was the featured running back for Cretin-Derham Hall High School in Saint Paul.  Click on this link for his senior year high school statistics.  Salamon looked solid against Bowling Green with a few powerful runs and sound technique.  I’ll agree with other analysts and reporters that Salamon is the favorite to win the starting job.

Deleon Eskridge - Juniper Serra High School’s all time touchdown record was held by NFL Hall of Famer Lynn Swan until Deleon Eskridge came along.  From the videos I’ve seen, Eskridge is an excellent open field runner with experience against talented competition.  Click on this link for his senior year high school statistics.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back up Salamon along with junior Jay Thomas.  Here’s a link to a video of Eskridge in high school.

Kevin Whaley - Whaley was a first team all-state running back at Virginia’s Salem High School.  He rushed for 1661 yards and 25 touchdowns his senior year.  Whaley is definitely the underdog to become the starter, but with the numbers that he put up in high school don’t be suprised if he sees significant playing time.  Whaley is smaller than Salamon or Eskridge, but is very quick and makes great cuts on the field.

All three of these freshmen running backs have an opportunity to become regulars in the Gopher box scores over the next four years.  If any of them could have a run versus Montana State similar to the following video of Knowshon Moreno, expect the new featured running back to have arrived:

In the Gopher’s season opener versus Northern Illinois, a new defensive back terrorized the NIU offense.  Whether it was stopping the ball carrier in the open field or covering receivers with agility and speed, safety Tramaine Brock was relentless and ferocious in his pursuit.  At times it seemed that even when other Gophers made tackles, Brock was nearby and poised to be next in line to make a play. 

In searching the internet for historical information regarding Brock, I frequently came across a nickname that I believe is fitting: T-Brock.  I have no way of knowing the origins of this nickname (other than the obvious guess that the T is for Tramaine), but his play on the field is reminiscent of the legendary T-Rex.  Tyrannosaurus Rex (T-Rex) was a hunter with an extraordinary sense of smell for prey from great distances away.  T-Rex is estimated to have run at 25 mph or better, and upon catching prey had a bite that could crush the bones of elephant-sized prey in one bite.  T-Brock instinctively senses plays from great distances away, has blazing speed in pursuit (4.37 in the 40 yard dash), and can lay bone-crushing hits upon his prey.  “Tyranno,” the “T” in T-Rex, is a form of the word tyrannus.  In the Ancient Greek language, tyrannus means ruler, monarch, or tyrant.  Thus, I find the nickname of T-Brock to be fitting for Tramaine Brock.

Tramaine Brock is a junior college transfer from Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College.  He led the Bulldogs to a 12-0 record and recorded seven interceptions in his first eleven games.  He was a NJCAA first team All-American, a three-star Rivals recruit, and now he’s a Golden Gopher.  I mentioned in my prior post that he reminds me of former Gopher safety Tyrone Carter but with better size and speed.  Carter is now a nine year NFL veteran who has started for the Steelers and has a Superbowl ring.  I see in Brock a unique combination of size, speed, agility, and intelligence that makes for a great safety and an imposing threat to opposing offenses.

I’m looking forward to watching T-Brock terrorize and prey upon opposing offenses for the remaining Gopher games this season.  He makes the defense fun to watch again.  Here’s a picture of how his presence must strike fear in the hearts of opponents:

Yesterday’s news that incoming freshman quarterback MarQuies Gray is temporarily off the team was not what Gopher fans wanted to hear less than a week from the start of the season.  The information regarding the situation is vague at best.  The Gopher chat boards are on fire with speculation as to what may be causing this situation.  First, I should make it clear that I am not associated with the Gopher Football Program or the University of Minnesota.  I’m going to take the high road on this one and focus on three possible scenarios that could explain the current situation and lead to a resolution that is positive for both Gopher fans and for Mr. Gray:

1.  MarQuies Gray was flagged for his ACT scores due to a legitimate improvement in his score - At The Gopher Daily, it is noted that Gray participated in the Play It Smart Program, which is a Program of the National Football Foundation and College Hall of Fame that assists student-athletes with improving their grades and developing skills for future success.  Gray could have changed his study habits and focus, thus legitimately improving his score.  If I were forced to make a prediction, I’d consider this option to be the most likely scenario.

2.  Someone had an axe to grind - It is possible that someone either currently or formerly affiliated with the Univeristy of Minnesota or the Gopher Football Program decided to cook up a story in order to exact some sort of petty revenge against the team or coaches.  If this were the case, the investigation should uncover the truth.  The Star Tribune noted that the request for review of Gray’s grades may have come from the University of Minnesota.  It seems strange for a test score review to be requested by the school this close to the start of the season.  Logically, that sort of request should have happened a few months ago.  Time will tell.

3.  Someone had a personal issue with MarQuies Gray -  It’s important to remember that these incoming freshmen players are only teenagers.  When a recent high school graduate receives abundant press coverage, attention from peers, and projects to have a bright future there will inevitably be those looking to knock him down a few notches.  While not likely, it is possible that someone filed a fallacious report in order to exact some sort of personal revenge.

Unless the entire story is ever released (which may never happen), all we can do is speculate.  Hopefully this issue has a positive resolution for the University of Minnesota, the Gopher Football Program, and most importantly for MarQuies Gray.

Jack Simmons suddenly became known to Gopher fans when he put on a show at the 2006 Insight Bowl with 7 catches for 134 yards.  After the game, Simmons was predicted by many to follow in the footsteps of tight end Matt Spaeth, who in turn had followed in the footsteps of Ben Utecht.  Both Spaeth and Utecht have gone on to play in the NFL.  

Simmons came to the Gophers out of Carmel High School’s 2004 graduating class in Mudelein, Illinois.  His father, Terry Simmons, lettered for the Gophers while playing football from 1977-1979.  Jack was listed as a three star high school recruit by both Rivals and Scout.  Interestingly, he was listed at 6′6, 210 lbs coming out of high school and is now listed by GopherSports.com at 6′4, 246 lbs.  I believe that he gained 36 pounds since high school, but I doubt that he shrunk two inches.  One of the challenges college football coaches have is figuring out which high school recruits have inflated height, weight, weightlifting, and speed numbers.  Despite possibly being measured in his cleats during high school, Jack Simmons reportedly had offers from Michigan State, Indiana, and Northwestern.

In 2007, Simmons was hampered by a foot injury and consequently his production was limited to 20 receptions for 202 yards.  For 2008, he is reportedly at full strength and ready for a breakout senior season.  Simmons has the size, speed, and agility to become a very good tight end this year.  With Eric Decker and a group of talented young wide receivers looking to improve the receiving options for sophomore quarterback Adam Weber, Simmons should see plenty of passes thrown his way due to increased pressure on opposing pass defenses.  In preseason drills, he has been dominant and pulled in some athletic catches.  If Jack Simmons can stay healthy, he could be an early round pick in the 2009 NFL draft.  Although he may not have the vocal pipes of former Gopher Ben Utecht, he could develop into a similar player and have a successful professional career.

Willie VanDeSteeg was a 2004 graduate of Glencoe-Silver Lake High School, which fields a class AAA football team in western Minnesota.  VanDeSteeg was rated a two star recruit by both Rivals.com and Scout.com.  In my opinion, his low two star rating was probably less of a reflection of his ability and more likely a result of playing for a small school in the rural Midwest.  There are often cases of players who grow and mature after reaching college, but VanDeSteeg recorded 75 tackles and 20 sacks his senior season.  20 sacks from a 6′4, 245 pound high school kid should be worth at least a three star rating at almost any level of play.  Many Minnesota high school players in the past few years have been chronically underrated again, and again, and again.

VanDeSteeg had a breakout season in 2006 with 10 sacks, which was third best in the Big Ten.  In 2007 he only recorded one sack, but broke a bone before the start of the season that hampered his performance.  Having one effective arm may be a successful strategy at times, but not as a defensive end.  The off-season proved to be an eventful one for VanDeSteeg, but he claims that he’s now ready for a strong senior season.

Realistically expect Willie VanDeSteeg to have a very good season in 2008 that is on par with his 2006 performance.  If indeed Eric Small has bulked up and Cedric KcKinley plays as well as some expect, Willie Vandesteeg should see less double-teams from offensive blockers and have a great season.  If he exceeds 10 sacks, do’t be suprised to see him go in the first few rounds of the 2009 NFL draft.

Entering the 2008 football season, the Gophers have added six junior college transfers to their squad.  Junior college transfers, or JUCOs, are players who used one or two years of their NCAA eligibility to play football for junior college teams.  Why would a Division 1 Big Ten Football program want to add players to their recruiting class that only have one or two years of eligibility left instead of high school recruits who could contribute to the program for four years?  First, JUCOs have a few more years of maturity and experience, and can contribute to a program immediately.  Second, the Gophers had several holes to fill after last year’s 1-11 season, and many incoming freshmen may not be physically ready or experienced enough to play right away.  Third, many JUCOs are players that were either overlooked by scouts, matured after high school, or needed to improve upon their academics before being accepted to a Division I-A program. 

JUCO players can offer immediate assistance to teams in need of talented players.  In 1997, Bill Snyder of Kansas State brought in 12 junior college players.  One year later, Kansas State realized their first ever number one ranking during the season.  Apparently, Kansas State is revisiting that strategy once again.  I think it highly unlikely that the six Gopher JUCO transfers will bring us to the Rose Bowl, but I do expect the defense to have a much better year. 

Expect to see JUCO transfers Tramaine Brock, Traye Simmons, and Simoni Lawrence start in the defensive backfield.  Don’t be surprised to see Lawrence play some downs as a linebacker, too.  Cedric McKinley should add size and speed at defensive end.  Rex Sharpe was a highly recruited player coming out of high school in 2005, and originally committed to Auburn.  After overcoming some adversity, he is looking forward to being an impact player as a linebacker for the Gophers.  Potentially, the Gophers could be adding three talented defensive backs, a defensive end with excellent size and speed, and a linebacker who could be a difference maker.  On offense, David Pittman should be a versatile weapon for the Gophers.

Hopefully, the Gophers’ six JUCO recruits will add a shot of adrenaline to the program for the 2008 season.  While these players don’t have a full four years of eligibility to play football at the University of Minnesota, they should help improve the team as the Gophers look to expand the Gopher Nation prior to the opening of their new stadium in 2009.  Long term, their presence may allow some of the linebacker and defensive line high school recruits to redshirt in 2008.  An extra year in the weight room prior to the eligibility clock ticking away can do wonders for a player’s strength and size.  In 2008, expect there to be nothing junior about Gopher JUCOs.

Heading into the 2008 season, Duane Bennett is likely to be the starting running back for the Gophers.  While Bennett will likely accumulate the most carries by the end of the season, a healthy Jay Thomas may suprise many with a solid junior year.  Thomas was sidetracked in 2006 and 2007 by knee injuries, and while showing flashes of high level performance he wasn’t able to see the field enough to adequately showcase his skills.

Jay Thomas was a Rivals.com three star recruit and ranked the 18th best all-purpose back in the nation coming out of high school.  At Minnesota’s Tartan High School, he rushed for a school record 1549 yards in 2004.  He had very good speed and was an accomplished sprinter.  After redshirting in 2005, he was predicted by some to pick up where Barber and Maroney had left off.  Unfortunately for Thomas, he was derailed by season ending knee injuries requiring ACL surgery in two consecutive seasons.  Success in 2008 will likely be determined by his ability to avoid injury and handle the physical punishment of Big Ten football.

In order for the Gophers to be successful this year, they must have depth at running back.  Duane Bennett and Jay Thomas could be an effective running back duo, with a few other newcomers ensuring that the depth charts aren’t shallow.  If Jay Thomas can stay healthy for a full season, he has the talent to become a very good running back in the Big Ten.

    As a redshirt Freshman, Adam Weber took the reins as the Gopher quarterback running a new spread offense.  Adam Weber came to the University of Minnesota from Mounds View High School in Arden Hills, Minnesota.  For many years now, Mounds View has run an option offense that requires an athletic quarterback who is able to pass on the move.  While different from the spread offense, Mounds View’s option offense prepared Weber for passing out of the pocket and rushing when needed. 

For Big Ten quarterbacks with 100 or more pass attempts, the 2007 rankings sorted by quarterback rating stack up as follows (QB rating does not take into account rushing stats):

While he only ranked number 9 out of 12, these statistics are deceiving as to his actual performance and his projections for the future.  First, the spread offense is complicated.  Weber was a redshirt Freshman running a new offense with no prior Big Ten experience.  Second, his only Senior receiver was Ernie Wheelwright, and his top receiver Eric Decker was only a Sophomore.  Third, the Gopher defense gave up 36.7 points per game and pressured the offense to take chances on big plays.

The quarterback with the top rating in the Big Ten was Ohio State’s Todd Boeckman, who didn’t start until his Junior year.  Indiana’s Sophomore quarterback Kellen Lewis was the second best, and is similar to Weber in that he frequently passes out of the pocket and will run the ball.  Let’s compare Lewis’s freshman year to Weber’s:

When comparing the two players at the same stage of experience, Weber has Lewis beaten in every statistic but TD to Interception rate.  If his accuracy in horseshoes is a good indicator, the interceptions should decrease as he learns the spread offense and has more experienced receivers to target.  At 6′3 220 lbs Weber also has good height and size for a Big Ten quarterback.  So far, Weber has demonstrated durability by avoiding injury despite rushing for 617 yards.

When the factors of age, experience with the system, and his supporting cast are taken into account, marked improvement should be expected from Adam Weber in 2008.  He’ll have a few new offensive linemen due to graduations, but his protection should remain similar to 2007.  Expect the interceptions to go down and the completion rate to go up.  If Adam Weber continues to develop and avoid injury, he should finish in the top 4 for Big Ten quarterbacks as a Sophomore.  2009 should be interesting with an experienced Weber, a versatile David Pittman, and the heralded recruit Marquies Gray competing for the starting job in the new stadium.